UK & Western Europe On Track For Warmest December On Record?

The cold and snow of this past weekend across Highland Scotland is history mid and particularly late this week as a surge of exceptionally warm air lifts north via a series of NNE moving occluded fronts. As well as bringing further spells of heavy rain and abundant cloud, these waves of downright warm December air may threaten December records dating back many decades.

How Warm?

The all-time record for the UK is 18.3C set in 1948 and it may at least get towards the 17C mark with an outside chance at scraping 18C somewhere in Southeast England.

With a lot of cloud, mist and murk along with spells of rain accompanied by a strong, even gale-force southwest wind, overnight minimums tonight and tomorrow night will be exceptional in the 10-14C range. Yes these would be average overnight lows in JULY!

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

Say good bye to the snow which fell widely over Highland Scotland during the weekend. Highs may be some 17-19C warmer by late this week compared to last Saturday when Altnaharra, Sutherland only mustered a max of -2C and nights dropped to -9C at Dalwhinnie, -6C at Aviemore this morning where 16cm of snow fell in recent days.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

November was the UK’s 3rd warmest but we saw both the warmest day and night on record and this month is falling in last months warm footsteps.

Dec anomaly so far!

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Credit: Michael Ventrice

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ECMWF surface through the remainder of this week shows cold air well to our NW with persistent, very mild SW flow dominating.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS forecasts highs through the rest of this week.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Stronger Jet Stream Next Week

It’s wet and exceptionally mild through the rest of this week but through the weekend the trans-Atlantic jet stream increases once again and so too does the depth of lows with a spell of more stormy weather looking likely next week for the UK, Ireland and Western Europe.

Forecasted jet looking strong early next week as we approach Christmas.

Credit: Chorley Weather

Credit: Chorley Weather

Models are firm on a much windier spell next week.

Credit: WSI Energy

Credit: WSI Energy

The fact that the rest of the month looks mild, we may wind up with the warmest December on record. Is this another 1997-98 or 2006-07 winter all over again?

5-day mean 500mb height anomalies.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

5-day mean 2 metre temperature anomalies

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Both AO and NAO now show a strong POSITIVE through the second half of the month.

ao_sprd2

nao_sprd2

nao_correlation_map

See the video for Tuesday’s discussion.

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