Atlantic Siege Shows No Sign Of Letting Up With Strong -85C Core Within ‘Pole Positioned’ Vortex

With little to no change in the great wheel of the Arctic Oscillation, our Atlantic siege continues with an increasingly windy day across Ireland and the UK. Always wettest in the North and West and the combination of gales along with bursts of moderate and at times heavy rain, it’s not the nicest of Wednesdays. Dry, cloudy and gusty across the Midlands, South and Southeast England.

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Latest from the ECMWF.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Gales across Northern Ireland, Scotland and Northern England but severe gales for exposed NW and Isles.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

It’s turns colder in the wake of the cold front which pushes through later tonight across Scotland. Expect more bite to the breeze and a drop in snow levels.

Slow moving southbound cold front makes a wet, blustery day across Southern Britain but note the lower thicknesses and much colder air at 850mb across Scotland. Wet snow to low levels in the Highlands likely.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Once the main front clears the UK and moves into France and the Low Countries, we find ourselves in a fresh westerly flow which could bring wintry showers even to lower levels but primarily rain as we pull in air from Iceland. Plenty of dry and bright weather in between.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Through Friday shower activity and winds ease ahead of the next system but Saturday looks to dawn cold with a widespread frost. Through Saturday, wind and rain moves across southern Ireland and the central/southern swathe of the UK. Looking dry and seasonable across Scotland with widespread frost by night.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

After a wet, windy South and clear, cool North this weekend, it’s back to business for all Monday with the next system sweeping wind, rain and mild air in for all.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

No Arctic Blast This Side Of Christmas, Perhaps New Year Looks Realistic

With a strong, pole positioned vortex and large -85C core right over the NP, I see little change over the next 20 or so days with the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation.

gfs_t50_nh_f240

hgt_ao_cdas

However, please don’t jump on this and declare ‘game, set, match’ on winter. It’s easy at this stage to write it off but keep in mind what’s been said. Worst of winter is expected to be mid and late winter… There is warming showing up at 50mb on the Asia-Alaska side of the vortex but we need to see this do full circle before we can get excited.

I can’t disagree with the EPS control and it’s largely +NAO signal through Dec 23.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

More detailed information, here the latest update from Dr Judah Cohen on the state of the PV and AO as we head deeper into December. Some reason for optimism.

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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