WESTERN EUROPE: Less Stormy, Less Wet With Possible Colder Trend Beyond Dec 15th

UPDATE: Winds gusting 112 mph over Aonach Mor summit, just north of Fort William.

We’re in for a wild end to the work week and weekend of weather all courtesy of a near 940 low near Iceland and near 1040 high over the Bay of Biscay. That steep gradient means a very windy, if not stormy next 48 hours across the whole of Ireland and UK as well as exposed coasts of the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Sweden with damaging gusts possible.

To make matters worse, we can expect an additional 4 inches of rain within the same period over the western upslopes of Snowdonia, Cumbria, Southern Upwards and West Highlands. This falling on already saturated ground.

Credit: WSI Europe

Credit: WSI Europe

Tonight and through tomorrow will be very wet and very windy with another batch of heavy, persistent rain driving in on a howling WSW wind. Sunday won’t be much better which appears to see the worst of the gales and rain transfer south over the UK during the day.

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Expect winds to steadily increase through today and turn nasty into this evening from rush hour on. Disruption is highly likely and this will only add to the pressure already put on by the emergency closure of the Forth Road Bridge which is causing travel chaos.

Latest ECMWF charts.

Surface at 00z Sat.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

10m wind gusts at 00z Sat below.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Widespread gusts of 50-60, locally 70 mph through this evening and tomorrow, mainly over N Ireland and Scotland initially then a transfer into England and Wales Saturday AM. 70-90 mph is expected on exposed coasts and 100-110+ on exposed mountain ridges.

Models show wave heights between 44-48 feet just SE of the centre around 6am tomorrow morning. Nearer to Iceland than Scotland but we may see 30+ batter the W and N Isles as well as exposed NW mainland.

Magicseaweed

Magicseaweed

As for the medium range, when your talking 10-15 days out, it’s fantasyland and anyone ‘forecasting’ this far out is simply wishcasting. I always use caution and basically throw certain scenarios out the window if one model says one thing and another says another thing. However, we continue to see on the models the big ridge over Canada expand NNE as we go from 0-5 and 5-10 days and by day 10-15, it’s in a position which could support a colder pattern for both US and West Europe.

All major models relentlessly migrate that positive north while troughs dig underneath. When ECMWF ensemble, EPS Control, GFS ensemble and operational all show the same thing, it grabs your attention.

Based on the run after run of the same scenario with all major models, I am going to call on a less stormy, less wet and colder trend towards Dec 15th on.

GFS ens

5-10 day

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

10-15 day

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS op

5-10 day

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

10-15 day

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

EPS Control

5-10 day

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

10-15 day

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

In tomorrow’s write-up, we look back at the winter of 1962-63 which includes an hour long video.

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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