US: Could An Unusually Warm December Be Followed By A Major Cold In January?

Written by on December 2, 2015 in Autumn 2015, United States of America, Winter 2015/16 with 0 Comments

December 2015 appears on track to be a pretty mild month, especially across the Northern Tier. The polar stratosphere continues to strengthen with temps at 10mb dipping towards -80C within the next 10 days. This supports a strong westerly influence throughout the mid-latitudes with oceanic air largely dominating the continents.

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The question is, could this December warmth, followed by a warm eastern November be a sign of things to come January, February 2016? History tells us that it could go either way. November 2011 saw a warm fall and December and January and February continued with the warm theme. In fact in January 2012, I visited Savannah, Georgia and we enjoyed record highs of 81 degrees.

But a warm November, December DOESN’T necessarily mean a warm heart and end to winter. In fact a perfect example of how a pattern can flip completely in the Winter of 1984-85 with incredibly mild weather during December from Kansas to New England. Like we’re seeing in the coming 10 days, the polar stratosphere was incredibly strong and frigid but then we saw an epic sudden stratospheric warming episode and January 1985 remains probably 2nd worst arctic outbreak for a particularly the Southeast US since February 1899.

Credit: FirsthandWeather

Credit: FirsthandWeather

Sudden stratospheric warming followed major intensification over the pole which occurred during the warm mid-latitude pattern during December.

Following the incredible warmth of December ’84 and the major sudden stratospheric warming, these were the highs and lows which followed in the midst of the January ’85 Arctic Outbreak

January_21,_1985_temperature_map

17-29 January ’85 temp anomaly.

compday_71_58_109_165_18_9_19_52

Projected 10hpa temperatures 10 days from now.

gfs_t10_nh_f240

It’s said that back in 1984, the immense build-up of cold air within the polar stratosphere followed by displacement south led to such an extreme cold outbreak which drove temps to -8F in Atlanta and -34F in North Carolina.

There is some interesting shifts in the height field showing up in the day 10-15 period off both EPS Control and GFS ensemble that bears close watching for the period towards Christmas week.

I showed in yesterday’s post the height rises north during January and February.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS ensemble

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

See the video for today’s discussion.

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