United States December Outlook (Includes Video)

Written by on November 23, 2015 in Autumn 2015, United States of America with 0 Comments

Despite the impressive blast of arctic air into the Midwest on the rear of one of November’s biggest snowstorms across Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan, November overall will wind up much warmer than normal east of the Rockies.

Yesterday was a very cold day by November standards.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Credit: Michael Ventrice

However… month to date looks like this.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Credit: Michael Ventrice

It looks like we’ve a very interesting close to November and open to Winter 2015-16 coming up next week with a large ridge expanding northward over western Canada while an undercutting, highly active Pacific storm track roars underneath.

The stratospheric temperature profile supports a cold open to December for the Lower 48 as warming up at 50hpa builds and links northeast Asia with Alaska through the next 7 day period.

Current

gfs_t50_nh_f00

7 day

gfs_t50_nh_f168

Perhaps the models see this textbook West Pacific Typhoon recurve sealing the deal on a major Northeast trough around Dec 1-3rd with big snowstorm from Texas to New England on the way…

Credit: JTWC

Credit: JTWC

The PNA is set to go back positive which supports a Western ridge, eastern trough.

pna_fcst

Here’s the latest run of the GFS for the closing days of November and open to December. Watch the heights rise into Alaska/NW Canada while the upper feature acts like a bowling ball underneath. Is there a connection between southbound arctic high and storm underneath and result being a major cold trough over the Northeast around Dec 1-2?

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

That’s one impressive North America and US snow pack 10 days from now off the GFS!

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

A Cold December Open Doesn’t Necessarily Mean A Cold December

A cold, stormy and potentially snowy open to December doesn’t mean it remains that way through the rest of the month. In fact there’s one model showing a highly zonal, Pacific pattern dominating while another puts a trough in the West, ridge in the East.

December 10-20th looks relatively mild to me with perhaps a colder, snowier West which may linger to around Christmas but I suspect this month overall will average near normal, to a little above normal east of the Rockies as I think the mild outdoes the cold open.

CFSv2

500mb height anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m temperature anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precipitation anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Canadian

500mb height anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m temperature anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precipitation anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The above forecast of milder rather than colder may concern many of you winter weather lovers, especially in the East but do not fret. Many El Nino years where the US November was warm, tends to have significant cold during the heart of winter.

The warm 97-98 winter had a cold November but in 2009, it was very warm.

November 1997

untitled

November 2009

untitled

The El Nino sure is strong but unlike 97-98, the core of warmth is moving off the South American coast and waters are warm still up in the North Pacific while waters are warm surrounding Greenland and north of the UK. This supports above normal heights up into Western Canada extending into the western Arctic while mid and late winter may well see the return of a more classic -NAO/AO pattern.

For more on the overall winter, see Winter 2015-16 Forecast

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