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The below winter 2015-16 forecast for Europe is based on.

1. Global sea surface temperature anomaly
2. Strong El Nino & forecast projection into winter
3. Eurasia snow cover
4. Solar Cycle 24
5. Trend in NAO/AO during the past year

Interesting to note that as of this winter forecast release, today broke a 1946 UK November record with a remarkably mild 22.4C recorded at Trawsgoed, mid Wales. The old record was 21.7C also set in Wales. That winter became and remains one of the UK’s most infamous.

In Brief: A Look Back At The Past Two Winters

During the past 2 winters, the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) has been cold, coinciding with a solar maximum. This promoted a strong trans-Atlantic jet stream, promoting strongly negative heights at 500mb. A colder Atlantic also supports a warmer Europe, especially when the PDO (Pacific Oscillation) is as warm as it is.

The Eurasian snow cover was well below normal at the start of winter 2013-14 and this played a role in the strong positive AO/NAO and warm/stormy winter for UK and Western Europe. At the beginning of 2014-15, Eurasian snow cover was large and well above normal and despite a still +AO/NAO, there was more snow and cold over particularly the northern UK but it remained very mild over most of Europe.

In Brief: What To Expect In 2015-16?

With all the available information and research gathered, I expect this winter to be mixed with spells of warm and wet but unlike 2013-14 and 2014-15, North Atlantic blocking should return thanks to strong warming on both sides of Greenland linking westward to Canada and eastwards to Europe which warms water into the Arctic and can promote above normal pressures and blocking over the pole as well as over Greenland extending into Scandinavia, forcing the coldest air south and southwest from Siberia to UK. We haven’t seen this since winter 2012-13 during the last big SSW (sudden stratospheric warming)

While Ireland, UK and western mainland Europe will see spells of mild and wet, I also see some significant winter weather with good potential for heavy disruptive snowfall and very low temperatures. (Monthly breakdown below)

Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, What Does This Mean?

Current SSTA’s.

Forecast Nov 2015 through July 2016

Long range forecasters closely watch and monitor the global SSTA’s as warm and cold pools do cause reaction with the above atmosphere. There’s strong correlation between colder than normal water and below normal heights (low pressure) and warmer than normal water, above normal heights (high pressure).

1-year SST change.

There are 3 areas within the global ocean surface we look at in particular, 1) The El Nino region within the equatorial Pacific 2) North Pacific and 3) North Atlantic. In the past 2 years, unusually warm water within the North Pacific has led to a cold central and eastern North America winter as strong upper high pressure (induced by the warm pool in the ocean) pumped mild air from tropics into Alaska and in turn, this forced arctic air south down into eastern North America. This side effect and bigger thermal gradient over eastern NA) forced a stronger than normal jet stream across the North Atlantic, helping it cool (due to upwelling), lower surface and upper pressures further and drive a hyper active storm season into the UK (2013-14).

AMO – NAO – Solar Connection

When looking back at history, there’s a clear relationship between warm AMO and -NAO (Greenland, N Atlantic blocking) and during cold AMO’s there less or no blocking but stronger Icelandic trough like we’ve seen in the last 2 winters. But it seems a solar maximum like we saw in 2013 corresponds with a cold or AMO and when there’s a solar minimum, like in 2009, the AMO is warm hence the strong blocking.

Currently the North Pacific remains warm while North Atlantic remains cool but not as warm and cool. The noteworthy change is the strong warming either side of Greenland, shrinkage of the central North Atlantic cold pool (apparently coldest in 80 years) which creates a more conducive tripole of warm-cold-warm. Warm between Baffin Is and Norway, cool between Newfoundland and Ireland and warm between New England and Portugal supports Greenland blocking with less prominence in westerlies. If westerlies are too strong, heights cannot build.

I don’t see a repeat in the longevity of the -NAO that we experienced in 2009 simply because the AMO isn’t as warm nor is the solar cycle down to a minimum but warming off a cool AMO and middle ground in the solar cycle can promote SPELLS OF EXTREME WINTER WEATHER. I expect this in 2015-16.

Solar Cycle 24

Remember that there’s well documented evidence that there’s strong connection between solar maximums and cool Atlantic, lack of blocking and as the cycle heads south, so the Atlantic typically warms and northern blocking returns in response to the warming ocean. Solar cycle 24 is well off the March 2013 peak and heading for the minimum, expected sometime between 2020-2022.

Sunspot numbers are on the decrease.

Because of the warming particularly between Greenland and Norway, I believe there’s greater likelihood of Greenland blocking and colder outbreaks into Europe again. I believe 2009-10 will repeat around the minimum. Until then we get a blend.

Strong El Nino

There is no question that the 2015 El Nino is strong and already showing strong influence within the global weather circulation but comparison to 1997-98 is misleading as the overall SST profile is quite different and therefore one cannot draw the conclusion that the 2015-16 winter will be warm like 1997-98.

Many tie strong to super El Ninos with warm winters over the United Stated and Europe and 1997-98 was warm, one of the warmest in fact but there is a very different SST profile in both North Pacific and North Atlantic.

1997

2015

Note the North Pacific is far warmer while the central North Atlantic is cold and waters north of the UK were cold in 97, warm in 2015.

Sure, a strong to super El Nino with warmest water in close to South America tends to promote more ridging and warmth into the United States and when Atlantic is warm, ridging and warmth tends to flood the UK and Western Europe. As you can see from the Oct 5 1997 to 2015 comparison that there’s less warmth up against the South America coast and warm distribution is far more spread out whereas concentration of warmth extended from central Pacific all the way back to the SA coast.

Unlike 97, there’s clear cooling in Nino region 1+2. This could support spells of wild winter weather for both North America and Europe.

While earth clearly warms during El Nino’s, watch out after it dissipates, there’s typically strong cooling which follows.

Eurasia Snow Cover

Northern Hemisphere snow cover is expanding nicely within the high latitudes with slightly above normal coverage for late October standards over Eurasia.

Northern Hemisphere snow cover anomaly

Why Siberian snow pack is important.

The actual and forecasted pattern for November 2015 has some clear similarity to both November 1982 and 2009. 1982 was during a strong El Nino with a big following winter for the US, not so much UK. Both continents saw a big winter in 2009 with a moderate El Nino.

Both GFS ensemble and JMA show mild, wet first half to November for both eastern North America and Western Europe with +NAO/AO.

Some of the biggest long range models show a colder winter for Europe with or thanks to the return of blocking on the Atlantic side unlike the past 2 years where blocking was confined to the N Pacific.

Met Office

JMA

Jamstec

Canadian

Dec

Europe view

Jan

Feb

Yes there’s warm solutions too.

CFSv2

Monthly Breakdown

December

1-15th: A warm, wet west with possibly strong Atlantic influence early in the month. Increasingly cold, snowy east.

15-31st: Colder and snow could shift west mid month on turning milder east as blocking develops over Iceland and westerlies slow dramatically. Many in the UK from Birmingham northwards may well see snow prior to Christmas.

January

1-15th: Chance of heavy snowfall for large parts of the UK and Ireland as well as parts of northern France, Belgium, Netherlands into Germany followed by a major cold spell. Not so cold east of Germany.

15-31st: A milder spell returns for the UK and western Europe as NAO/AO turns positive for a time.

February

1-15th: Mild start for much of Europe with westerly influence back.

15-28th: Another flip of the NAO/AO likely to bring back the return of the colder, snowier pattern over the UK, Ireland and Western Europe.

As for Iberia, Mediterranean and southern countries, I expect much of this winter to be unsettled with some significant storms but surges of unusual, perhaps record warmth is possible.

SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL IN 2015-16 OVER THE EASTERN FLANK OF IRELAND, MUCH OF THE UK WITH MORE IN LONDON THAN LAST YEAR. CITIES SUCH AS PARIS, EVEN MADRID ARE LIKELY TO GET ONE OR TWO SIZABLE SNOWSTORMS AND BRUSSELS, AMSTERDAM EAST INTO BERLIN COULD SEE TWO TO THREE  3″ OR MORE SNOW EVENTS ALSO.

Snowfall for UK/Ireland cities (% if normal)

Inverness 110%

Glasgow 110%

Belfast 100%

Dublin 100%

Edinburgh 150%

Leeds 115%

Birmingham 100%

Cardiff 100%

Norwich 150%

London 105%

Overall, I see at least 2 to 3 spells of cold or major cold with a particularly severe spell either in January or February. El Nino years tend to bring the worst winter weather during the 2nd half of the season.

Time will tell.

Thanks for reading.

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Tags: cold, Europe winter 2015-16, featured, official, snow, UK winter 2015-16, winter, winter 2015-16, winter forecast