EUROPE: NAO/AO Likely To Support Warm/Wet November But Potentially Opposite December…

Written by on October 29, 2015 in Autumn 2015, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

This morning’s visible satellite image shows a large low encompassing a large area of the North Atlantic and it’s associated cold front draped over the British Isles.

Credit: weatheronline.co.uk

Credit: weatheronline.co.uk

The strong high pressure system in the east is very evident with the absence of cloud over the Baltic states, Ukraine, Bulgaria and Romania.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Here’s the surface view over the Atlantic.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The latest CF produced heavy bursts of rain and 50 mph wind gusts overnight and shall continue drifting east into the North Sea today bringing a return of sunshine and blustery showers in it’s wake. According to NOAA some buoys well off the Irish coast has reported wave heights of up to 26ft with the 955mb beast centred south of Iceland.

Note the plume of moisture seen on surface charts as well as on infrared and visible satellite, this is the next rain maker for the UK tomorrow (Friday) and may bring quite the soaking.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

As shown in yesterday’s post and video, the high over eastern Europe builds westwards starting Sunday and looks to shield the majority of the UK from rain and wind bearing Atlantic weather fronts through at least the first half of next week. The exception being NW Scotland.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Quite the lack of precipitation over the heart of Europe with this high.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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Positive NAO/AO pattern looks to stick through the first half of November with cold Greenland, warm Europe.

GFS ensemble 5-day mean 2 metre temp anomalies.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Canadian model shows the +NAO signal for November but then flip to -NAO for December.

NOVEMBER

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

DECEMBER

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

See video for more.

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