EURO WINTER 2015-16: Big Model Divide And Big Differences In Global SST This Year Compared To 1997

Written by on October 21, 2015 in Autumn 2015, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

There’s an interesting divide in long range model solution for the upcoming winter.

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I strongly believe individual forecasters lean towards their favoured model where it’s warm or cold and it’s interesting to see the growing contrast in forecasts coming out.

WSI shows a warm Europe winter with little to no blocking.

WSI Europe

WSI Europe

AccuWeather is quite different.

AccuWeather

AccuWeather

To me, it looks like WSI is swaying towards the CFSv2 and it’s 97-98-like blowtorch.

euT2mSeaInd2

In stark contrast, the Met Office, Canadian, JMA and to lesser extent, Jamstec all show a colder, blocky solution.

Met Office

Met Office

Screen_Shot_2015_10_19_at_12_50_07_PM

Interestingly, the newest run of the Jamstec has leaned a little more towards the CFSv2.

CANADIAN monthlies

WxBell

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical Tidbits

Sep run

temp2_glob_DJF2016_1sep2015

Oct run

temp2_glob_DJF2016_1oct2015

I must stress, there is always a chance that a summer and autumn pattern with -NAO/AO can indeed flip for winter and so I cannot rule out the milder solution here.

In the last two years, blocking has been present over the NH but focused over NE Asia/NW North America with arctic air forced into the central/eastern US but with change to SST’s with cooling in North Pacific and warming in North Atlantic (esp above Iceland) suggests a POSSIBLE flip to stronger Aleutian low, weaker Icelandic low with return of Greenland blocking. Why? Waters are warming around Greenland and between Greenland and Scandinavia to the north of Iceland and this is where the positive heights have been shifting to in recent weeks.

Current SSTA’s.

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical Tidbits

A crucial factor to any sort of ‘colder solution’ is the warmest water in the Nino region MUST shift west and notice the warmth is pushing off South America. In 97-98 is held up against the coast!

Also notice the SST profile back in early November 97 was opposite to this year with coldest waters between Greenland and Iceland and warmest underneath. This DOESN’T support blocking nor does the warmest Nino waters up against South America.

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Change in last 7 days.

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical Tidbits

There’s at least some reason to believe N Atlantic/Greenland/Scandinavian blocking is possible in winter 2015-16.

WINTER FORECAST COMES OUT NOVEMBER 1st!!!

See video for more.

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