Warm Polar Stratosphere Already Supporting High Latitude Blocking & Early Taste Of Winter For Europe
For the first time in probably 3 years, we’re now into October and the mid to low latitudes are colder at 50hpa than within the arctic. What does this mean? It means the stratosphere is warm in the arctic, hence the positive 500mb height field across the northern latitudes and negative in the mid latitudes.
This setup looks to continue with warm stratosphere and northern blocking which is leading to colder times ahead mid to late month for both Europe (already started) as well as eastern North America. Moscow of course saw it’s first snow back on Thursday. A little earlier than normal.
The all important Siberian snow pack (supports coldest air in NH and brings UK/Europe’s coldest air) is growing.
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Check out the 50hpa temps now through the next 10 days. Notice the pole remains the same or gets a touch warmer while the lower latitudes grow colder. This supports a negative NAO/AO.
It was a cold and clear late afternoon over Summit Camp, Greenland yesterday, temp -39C.
Given the setup, expect Greenland to warm while N America and Europe cool.
The last two winters have seen strat warming where warmest waters compared to normal where (Alaska) and this pushed the cold pool within the stratosphere between the pole and Europe so the bitter cold which did reach the mid latitudes was forced into central and eastern North America.
Last winter was much colder than 2012-2013 but a lot of that was down to a cold North Atlantic.
Now notice in the NH 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies how the positive height field expands through the next 20+ days.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
These 5-day mean 2m temp anomalies say it all.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Two important things about the above to remember, a more stable and calmer atmosphere above will help warm the SST’s below while stormy weather cools SST’s so therefore waters should continue warming in and around the high latitudes. Warmer than normal water equates to stronger than normal heights. Also, notice how heights are below normal over Siberia. This should help snow pack growth along with cold air. Lot’s of good signs.
A sign of things to come or just a great pattern for winter weather but at the wrong time of year?
Be sure to watch this morning’s video for more.
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