Flash Floods Devastate French Riviera, Could Joaquin’s Remnants Hit UK While It Snows In East Europe Next Weekend?

Written by Mark Vogan on October 4, 2015 in Autumn 2015, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

With high pressure weakening across Northern Europe, a Med low began to turn northward into Italy and France and as it did, it unleased astonishing rains along the French Riviera causing devastating flash floods which killed up to 12 people.

https://youtu.be/_c-bycWvBwQ

Up to 150mm or 6 inches of rain fell within just 2 hours in the Alpes-Maritimes region of SE France.

Warm water, cold air aloft, moisture rich air, surface convergence along with topographic lift all played a role in this extreme event.

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The latest GFS surface shows that system lifting north into central Europe while a fairly deep Atlantic low brings wind and heavy rain to Spain and Portugal. By tomorrow morning (Monday), wind and rain will be back over the southern British Isles creating a messy Monday morning commute. That system spreads northward during Monday bringing the return of unsettled weather back to Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Further outbreaks of wind and rain piles in behind this system, so it’s one after the other through the first half of this week.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

After the late Tuesday system clears to the north into Scandinavia it looks like heights build and we settle things down Wednesday into Thursday possibly stretching out to Friday with less showers, less wind and decent temps where the sun shines.

Then by late week on into next weekend, we begin to see the approach of what will be the remnant low of Joaquin. Exact positioning of track is very uncertain this far out as modelling also shows a deepening, almost winter-like trough dropping and expanding from Scandinavia into central and eastern Europe. This may well bring the first snows for some but high strong and how far west it gets will determine how close the remnant low of Joaquin gets to the UK. More on that tomorrow.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Check out the 850 temps next weekend. May feel more like winter in central and eastern parts within the next week… GFS even takes some of the cold westwards all the way to the UK.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

An impressive trough for sure.

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GFS and ECMWF both show the cold trough and with it, the first snows for some.

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Finally, on the night of September 30th, the ISS was flying over a cloudless Western Europe and astronaut Scott Kelly captured this stunning view over northern France, Low countries as well as the British Isles and Ireland. Just look at all those city lights. Amazing!