Near 1040 High Spans Some 2,000 Miles Providing Cloudless Sky To Millions, Stormy Med Though!

Written by on September 30, 2015 in Autumn 2015, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

UPDATED: Temperatures reached 23.3C today at Braemar. The UK’s highest reading. Also, it was a well below normal September for rainfall across the UK with just 55% of normal. A good forecast for the month put out on Aug 24!

We remain beneath the powerful influence of high pressure spanning some 1500-2000 miles and providing near cloudless skies from Atlantic across Scotland down to the south of France up through Germany to the Baltics, even western fringes of Russia.

View from above

Credit: weatheronline

Credit: weatheronline

From ground

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Underneath the ridge it’s a very different story, note in the above visible satellite view a large area of cloud covering the western Med Sea, this is one of two lows which generated up to 36000 lightning strikes within a mere 8 hour window this morning to the east of the Balearics.

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Increased lift and convection thanks to the warm sea temps.

Credit: aemet

Credit: aemet

A wet, windy night to come from Sardinia and Corsica over to the Balearics.

wsi europe

wsi europe

The secondary low currently raining down on Turkey will push through Italy and deepen as it heads towards the Balearics bringing further heavy, possibly flooding rain, gusty winds, choppy seas and isolated waterspouts and hail.

A lot of rain through the next 48 hrs over the central and western Med but none further north.

wsi europe

wsi europe

Through the next 5 days, the high remains dominant with a continuation of warm days and chilly nights with mist, fog and patchy frost but heights begin to deflate Friday through Sunday as the remnants of current tropical storm Ida continues to track northward into colder waters. This system essentially reshapes the European upper pattern and this marks the change to what will be a very different week next week.

At present, all the disturbed weather remains to our north, south and west with heights to strong to penetrate but as we go from 1036mb today down to 1016mb by Sunday, the secondary Med system may drift far enough NW to influence the southern UK but the Atlantic door and low pressure waiting in the wings is sure to break this stunning spell into Monday.

Here’s the latest GFS surface which shows the gradual break down in this perfect end of Sep pattern.

gfs---europe-24-A-mslpthkpcp_white

gfs---europe-72-A-mslpthkpcp_white

gfs---europe-96-A-mslpthkpcp_white

gfs---europe-120-A-mslpthkpcp_white

See video for the discussion.

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