Summer & Autumn Ocean/Atmosphere Strikingly Reflective Of 2009

Written by Mark Vogan on September 29, 2015 in Autumn 2015, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

I would be lying if I said there was no similarity between this year’s pattern and SSTA (sea surface temperature anomaly) to 2009. Like summer 2009, we have endured a cool, wet, -NAO/AO warm season and even the Sep/projected Oct pattern looks similar.

An incredible similarity in the 500mb geopotential height field between summer 2009 and 2015.

Summer 2009

R-uuxTwV

Summer 2015

bJ8nR6T8

Interestingly, this summer has produced the first sustained -NAO/AO period for any time of year in about 3 years unlike the firm positive in both summers and winters between 2013 and 2015 coinciding with the recent solar max. Is this a trend we’ll continue to see into the upcoming winter?

nao_sprd2

ao_sprd2

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

This was how summer 2015’s temperature anomalies played out thanks to cold North Atlantic and -NAO.

untitled

Below is the current global SSTA’s.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Like the upper and surface air temps we’re similar to 2009, so too have the SSTA’s.

Here’s how SSTA’s looked back at this time in 2009. Compare particularly the North Atlantic below to the above this year.

untitled

Only real difference is the cold N Pacific and warmer equatorial Pacific but check out the changes.

This is the last 7 days.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The N Pacific is warming as well as waters just off South America, hints that the Nino is shifting west.

Here was the SSTA’s by the end of Dec 2009

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Jamstec SSTA’s for the upcoming winter look similar to late Dec 2009.

ssta_glob_DJF2016_1sep2015

Here’s it’s projected surface air temp anomalies.

temp2_glob_DJF2016_1sep2015

Winter 2009-10.

oZoYtwZh

I’m still wary and still don’t see a repeat of 09-10 OVERALL but I can see where we get some major blocking and real threat of major snow and cold a few times in 2015-16 based on what I’m seeing. The reason I don’t see a prolonged cold winter is primarily down the the solar cycle and how it’s not in the tank.

There appears to be a nice N Atlantic tripole setting up but we must see further changes in the Atlantic for true Greenland or Scandinavian blocking in the meat of the winter season.

I’m curious as to how much cooling we’ll see in the Gulf of Alaska as well as a westward push in the El Nino warm pool.

Significant upper pattern flip coming next 7 days.