Glorious Week Across North, West Europe, Stormy Down In Med But Change Comes Next Week

Written by on September 28, 2015 in Autumn 2015, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Well did you manage to see the supermoon eclipse last night? supermoon

Though not the best of quality, these were the images I managed to capture.

Credit: MV

Credit: MV

Credit: MV

Credit: MV

Credit: MV

Credit: MV

As for the weather, well we’re firmly under the influence of a strong upper ridge, shielding us from any disturbed weather through the rest of this week. A perfect ending to Sep and open to Oct.

As heights build across the north we’re watching heights fall over southern Europe and the Med, the perfect setup with increasing easterly upper winds and setup for cyclogenesis. Models remain with a stormy end of week solution for the central and western Med, not good for end of season holiday makers. You’d probably be better off up here under the near 1040 high.

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Nothing really happening through Thursday so here’s the ECMWF surface for Friday. Note the low near Italy. Looking wet, windy with potential for waterspouts etc.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Nice 1036 high extends from Atlantic over the UK and Scandinavia to Russia. We saw night lows dip to around 2-4C widely last night and by day, we got up to 21C in Aberdeenshire yesterday. Expect a day and night repeat throughout the rest of this week.

According to the ECMWF, we need to go all the way out to early next week (a week today) for change as heights fall allowing Atlantic weather fronts to make inroads.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Looks like a true breakdown arrives next Tuesday.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

What’s going to be interesting to watch, is how much this pattern changes because the models are hinting at a push of pretty cold air from the NW mid to late next week following the passage of a cold front. First cold shot of the season?

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

This is a rather chilly, unsettled look 10 days from now.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Latest GFS operational sees the Atlantic closing in late weekend on into early next week.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Looks downright stormy a week tomorrow!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

EPS Control 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies show a strong upper ridge core centred directly over the UK in the 0-5 day then still above normal with significant height drop day 5-10 then more negative day 10-15.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS ensemble shows less trough more ridge through the next 15 days but I think this will change in upcoming runs.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Exact timing of breakdown will vary as we progress through the next 5 days or so. Will keep monitoring. Stay tuned.

See video for the latest discussion.

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