1040 High To Build Over UK Next Week While Cyclone Forms Over Mediterranean In Response

Written by on September 25, 2015 in Autumn 2015, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

A glorious September weekend is on tap throughout the UK extending into west-central Europe as heights build but what about next week? If you happen to be off, your in luck if staying in the UK but if you happen to be taking an end of season trip down to the Med, you may be sorely disappointed.

Models indicate this high building to an impressive 1040mb mid next week providing fine and dry weather lasting through at least Thursday. As heights rise across the Northern half of the continent, they tend to fall across the Southern half and that’s exactly what we’ll see next week with the potential formation of a classic October cyclone over the still warm central Med.

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GFS for next Thursday shows just that.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

It can be tough to say exactly how long this type of pattern holds but medium to longer range models see the high pressure holding through at least October 10th but this doesn’t mean fronts won’t disrupt.

The general theme Saturday through next Wednesday/Thursday is mild to warm by day, cold with mist, fog and possible rural frost by night.

In this morning’s video I showed the ECMWF and the setup through this weekend and into much of next week. In the written post I will show the GFS version which interestingly agrees with the ECM’s dry, settled through Thursday but while the ECMWF holds the strong ridge into next weekend, the below GFS shows disturbed weather across the southern continent lifting north into the UK by Thursday.

GFS ensemble 5-day mean 500mb height anomaly.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

5-day mean 2m temp anomalies suggest a colder than normal continent with easterlies taking air from Russia westwards. If only this were winter right?

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS surface this weekend and beyond.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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