Multi-Day Wind & Rain Event For Mid-Atlantic, Gulf Development Likely Next Week

Written by on September 24, 2015 in Autumn 2015, Summer 2015, Tropical, United States of America with 0 Comments

With low pressure continuing to organise east of the Carolinas beneath a building New England high, it looks like the Mid-Atlantic is set for several days of poor weather, a multiday wind and rain event. It’s going to be a downright miserable next several days as easterly gales persist, causing coastal flooding both by wave, wind and heavy rain bands.

Visible satellite. Note there’s actually three distinct systems on the map from Plains to East Coast. One centred over SE South Dakota/NW Nebraska which produced 5-10 inch rains and big flooding another is clearly seen spinning over the Texas-New Mexico border and third is the system gathering over the Southeast which is form a low pressure center off South Carolina.

vis-l

Infrared

rb-l

Coastal flooding already affecting coastal North Carolina. Here was New Bern earlier.

Credit: Zach Frailey @UprootedPhotos

Credit: Zach Frailey @UprootedPhotos

Credit: Zach Frailey @UprootedPhotos

Credit: Zach Frailey @UprootedPhotos

Credit: Zach Frailey @UprootedPhotos

Credit: Zach Frailey @UprootedPhotos

Columbia, SC today. Just the beginning of this long drawn out wind, rain and wave event for the East Coast.

Via Johnny Kelly

Via Johnny Kelly

A tightening pressure gradient between low and high is forcing a long fetch of strong easterly winds setting the stage for days of pounding wave action which already producing coastal tidal flooding.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

gfs---east_coast-24-A-10mgustarrows

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Here’s how much rain is expected over the next 5 days. Via Jim Cantore

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This could be conservative given the length of time this system will throw moisture onshore from a very warm Atlantic.

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Good news considering the drought conditions in this part of the country! Via Jim Cantore

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The low is gathering steam from a well above normal western Atlantic and enhanced by the Gulf Stream but this is a long winded event because the low, which is currently cold core, is trapped beneath a strong ridge to the north. That’s why wind and rain with 19-20ft waves will batter the coast for up to 3 or 4 days.

GFS surface

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

While there’s the East Coast mess this week, NHC are now catching on to the potential threat in the Gulf of Mexico next week. When heights rise into Canada they fall over the Caribbean and all it takes is an area of disturbed weather and that’s exactly what we’ve got around the northern Yucatan. Models have been seeing a Gulf system and US threat next week for days now.

Credit: AccuWeather

Credit: AccuWeather

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

GFS for next week.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

As for the longer term (day 10 onwards), it looks like the models have less trough and more ridge further east. This may be something to do with the fact the west Pacific typhoon is showing more westward track into Taiwan and China.

Credit: JTWC

Credit: JTWC

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

See the video for more.

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