Western Europe Contrasts, Indian Summer Likely On Way

An autumnal trough currently over Northwest Europe brought an interesting contrast this morning across Spain in particular with cooler than normal extending from Scotland down through France into northern/central Spain. Clear sky and light winds meant a chilly night with mist, fog and patchy frost but Spain is separated by two very different air masses.

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This morning’s surface map.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

View from space.

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The North of Iberia is beneath the trough but South is below and with strong terral winds (similar to Santa Ana) rounding the base of the trough, Malaga reported a mid-July like minimum of 28C at 7am while the north of Spain fell to 4C.

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Terral winds blowing towards Spain’s Med Coast means the hottest weather will be up against the Costas again today with 28-34C but cooler further inland. The below 2m temp anomalies show the influence of the Terral wind.

The below 2m temp anomaly chart for today shows a cool UK, France and much of Iberia with core centred over France where clouds dominate, holding maximums to just 10C in spots.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m forecasted highs for today.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m forecasted highs for today across Iberia. Hottest along the Costas.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

With the trough well to the north, summer lives on throughout the Med.

There’s plenty of reason for optimism as we head towards October. Looks like March and April’s persistent fine, dry and settled pattern may well repeat for the late September through much of October pattern.

Despite a better month overall, September looks on track to become the UK and Ireland’s 5th straight below normal month.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Credit: Michael Ventrice

After a warmer, drier than normal March and April, it was May which commenced the below normal trend and it’s held ever since.

As stated in this morning’s video, it’s going to be interesting to see if this cool trend from the summer extends through the upcoming winter.

Indian Summer? Well yes as many of us have seen some rather cool, misty, foggy or even frosty nights. This morning got down to a nippy 3C on my 5am drive into Cumbernauld and tonight as well as the weekend, looks to see more chilly nights.

Until then, further fronts will sweep in from the NW Wed-Fri but ridging builds in over the weekend.

Weekend

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

One more front is likely to drop in Monday before the real, persistent ridge builds and holds through next week. Long range modelling suggests that this ridge may hold through a large part of October, give or take a few interruptions.

The CFSv2 weekly sees this weeks trough leave, replaced by a ridge next week and right the way through Oct 18.

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See video for today’s discussion. October outlook comes out tomorrow!

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