The US Gulf and Atlantic coast will have an open door policy next 15 days to tropical threats. While the tropics are already stirring with Ida spinning well out to sea and mischief just off the East Coast, the northward building of a very strong and sprawling high pressure into Canada forces heights to lower underneath and out over 85-90 degree water. Ida is already on the playing field and no threat to the US but models are legitimately hinting at development in the Gulf next week to 10 days, folks on the coast shouldn’t be complacent.
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The latest GFS shows not just a messy late week and weekend for the Mid-Atlantic with prolonged, possibly multi-day wind driven rains and coastal flooding but there’s increasing potential for development within the Gulf and a threat to the US coast. Meanwhile, a deep low crossing Canada may also herald the first cold shot into Montana and N Tier.
October Outlook will be out tomorrow but here’s what the CFSv2 and ECMWF is showing.
CFSv2
ECMWF
See video for a heads up!
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