WEST EUROPE: Unsettled & Autumnal This Week But Next Week Sees Return Of High Pressure

After a lengthy spell of fine, dry and settled weather across Northern Ireland and Scotland, this week will be quite different thanks to a reversal in upper pattern with low over high. That means Atlantic fronts will frequently drop into Scotland from the northwest bringing cool, wet and at times quite windy conditions. However, give it a week or so and I recon the end of this month will go out with some lovely weather to open October.

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The best of any dry, sunny and warm weather this week will be largely confined to Southeastern parts. It remains warmer than normal down through France, Iberia and the western Med thanks to ridging and warmth continuing to lift up from Africa.

In between lows, narrow highs will push north over the UK providing increases chances of mist and fog by night with sheltered rural areas possibly seeing frost.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

After a dull, damp start to Monday for most, the afternoon has turned out rather nice for many though rain has lingered in eastern and southern parts with showers, some heavy and thundery pushing in further west but this front clears out only to be replaced by another. Through tomorrow, the low moves out into the North Sea and with a north flow, it will feel autumnal in any breeze.

Lighter winds and cool, clear skies mean a frost threat into Wednesday AM across many inland parts of Scotland while in the far south of England extending into France, it’s much milder.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Wed AM temps off GFS.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The next front sweeps in later Wednesday.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Once the main rain band moves through it’s breezy, showery and cool Thursday-Friday for much of the UK but particularly N England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Conditions gradually improve through the weekend as low pressure departs into the near continent and is replaced with high pressure for a time.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Uncertainty obviously increases the further out you go but models are consistently showing the return of high pressure into September’s final week after yet another front moves through Scotland next Monday. GFS remains with the idea.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

This flip between upcoming 5 days and following 5 says it all…. This was forecast for quite some time!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Here were the highs across W Europe yesterday. Autumn in Northwest but it remains summer in South and Southwest.

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September’s temp anomaly so far. Yet another below normal month for UK.

Michael Ventrice

Michael Ventrice

Think this would be the 5th straight as I think April was warmer than normal.

The October Outlook will be available to the public Wednesday but will likely touch on this tomorrow! As of now, I see a wetter month.

See video for today’s discussion.

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