El Nino’s Westward Shift May Present 3rd Bad Winter For Midwest, East

Written by on September 20, 2015 in Autumn 2015, Summer 2015, United States of America with 0 Comments

Still a lot of if’s and buts but for Midwesterners, Easterners seeking another winter worth talking about in 2015-16, you may have your wish as current modelling is swaying more towards another colder but stormy outlook the further south and east you go across the Lower 48 while it’s looking disastrous for the winter sports industry of the Pacific Northwest.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

This is based on current behaviour and model projections of the currently strong El Nino as well as other factors.

untitled

Screen_Shot_2015_09_13_at_6_20_18_AM

There’s increasing model agreement that the El Nino peaks later this fall and more importantly the warm pool looks to continue shifting west off the South American coast through the winter months, that would suggest more westward positioning of the mean ridge.

Current

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Winter SSTA projections

Jamstec

ssta_glob_DJF2016_1sep2015

Met Office

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

CA model (based on SST analog)

cat2m_anom_3__1_(2)

CFSv2

glbSSTSeaInd3

Notice ALL the above models take the El Nino warm pool off South America. That’s crucial at pushing the mean ridge west allowing colder troughs to drop into the central and eastern US. The warm waters around Greenland and Arctic may held support a more -AO which could enhance any cold shots into the mid-latitudes.

Jamstec, Met Office and CA model agree on another winter in which strongest heights are up into northwest Canada allowing for an eastern trough. Warm waters off California should enhance a southern branch jet and what I think is possible, given the models, we see the jet split out over the Pacific with northern branch lifting up into Alaska/Yukon while the southern branch hoses Southern California and Southern Tier with both jet’s merging over the SE which could make for a stormy winter from Texas, Georgia up to New York.

2m temp anomalies.

Jamstec

temp2_glob_DJF2016_1sep2015

Met Office

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

CA model

cat2m_anom_3__1_(2)

CFSv2 is going for a 97-98 winter.

glbT2mSeaInd3

usT2mSeaInd3

For more, see this morning’s video.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply

Top