W EUROPE: Looking Quiet To End September, Begin October

Well we arrived home around teatime yesterday and this morning it’s cool and foggy, big difference to yesterday morning when we walked over to breakfast in shorts and 22C early AM sunshine. All good things must come to an end right?

Looks like my overall Sept idea is playing out pretty well. A decent first 10-15 days, more unsettled between 15-22 and then for the months final week, the pattern still looks to resettle with a northern blocking high just like we started the month off.

The weekend is a tail of two halves with a fine start give or take the odd mist and fog patch which lingers into midday but the weekend ends on a wetter, windier note thanks to low pressure making it’s appearance off the Atl.

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The pattern becomes more mobile through much of the upcoming week with two to three fronts pushing through Mon-Wed but as we head for late week, high pressure rebuilds and into next weekend and the start of the following week, it looks like the storm track makes another southward shift with heights rising over top.

Both ECM and GFS show unsettled day 0-5 then high pressure day 5-10 and particularly 10-15 which takes us into autumn’s second month.

In the last week, Spain, France and the southern half of the UK (England and Wales) has been more unsettled while N Ireland, Scotland into Denmark and Norway has been settled, the upper pattern reverses through next week but then flips back late month and so I think Sept should wind up below normal rainfall wise as forecast.

Here’s the latest ECMWF through the next 10 days.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS shows a more dominant northerly high developing between day 6-11.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

CFSv2 weeklies likewise.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

See today’s video for the discussion.

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  1. Eystein Simonsen says:

    “In the last week, Spain, France and the southern half of the UK (England and Wales) has been more unsettled while N Ireland, Scotland into Denmark and Norway has been settled”
    No, it’s been record high floods in southern Norway, with new breaking records regarding preciptitation. Some places, cities have been under water, rivers gone wild and removed roads and houses. The heavy rain which has stopped for time being, still causes floods due to full lakes.

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