EUROPE: Models Go Right To My September Idea As Upper Air Stream Shifts With Seasonal Change..

Written by on September 2, 2015 in Autumn 2015, Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

I came to the conclusion around mid-August and issued my outlook on August 24 stating that a drier and much more settled September was likely based on global drivers, type of summer pattern we’ve had and sure enough the models appear to be going to my idea that at least through mid month, high pressure looks to dominate the West of Europe.

This week is cool, windy and showery as we sit between high to the west and low to the east. This upper setup is driving unseasonably cool air straight south and as a result we’ve an autumnal air mass in place while major summer heat will shrink over Europe.

This BBC weather graphic sums this pattern up nicely.

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

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Take a look at the below GFS snap shots for the 500mb height anomaly through the next week or so from a hemispheric perspective.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

All summer long, we’ve had a stubborn Atlantic to UK trough and abnormally strong European ridge which has supported a near summer-long heat wave which has also produced the worst drought for the continent since the record hot, dry summer of 2003.

There is big shifts in the upper pattern developing this week as a major trough dives into the western side of North America. This is whiping out the hot, dry pattern over the Pacific Northwest and in turn this trough is pumping a major ridge up through the Great Lakes into eastern Canada downwind. The ripple effect is forcing a stubborn mid-North Atlantic blocking high to finally slide east and this will settle over the UK and Ireland this weekend through next week while a trough and much cooler air crosses mainland Europe

CFSv2 weeklies going right to my September outlook.

500mb height anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Temperature anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precipitation anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

 

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