The summer forecast for the US has played out not too bad. It’s been cool and wet from the Central US up into the Great Lakes, warm around the coasts where waters offshore are running well above normal. As for Texas, well it was a very wet spring and start to summer but a very dry July, made for a hot start to August, indicative of El Ninos and this was highlighted in my summer forecast back in April.
This years El Nino continues to be compared to the 1997-98 event but there are differences including the warmer PDO.
Whether the 2015 El Nino reaches levels of 97-98 or not, this event is one of the strongest and will have significant impacts on the upcoming winter across the hemisphere.
Credit: NOAA
Often with strong El Nino years, there’s a tendency for cooler and wetter but like we saw in May, there can be a bookend effect with a warmer September. The CFSv2 is seeing that.
Here’s the CFSv2 hemispheric 500mb height anomalies for Sept.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
US view. Note the ridge is positioned where it’s been fairly cool and wet this summer. Building into the Great Lakes, this is a classic set up with an eastern trough split with one piece leaving and the other holding and drifting into the Southeast, Gulf or off the South Atlantic coast.
With the Atlantic at least becoming less hostile and a more active wave train coming off Africa, one must be concerned about a US tropical cyclone hit in September and the piece left behind will ultimately ‘incubate’ a region over abnormally warm water. Just takes a few waves, albeit weak to light up just off the coast.
Looks like plenty of warm, sunny days into the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast for fall’s opening month!
CFSv2 500mb height anomaly.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
It looks to remain wet in central and interior West locations while dry along the East Coast.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Where wet it should be cool and where dry it should be warm and that’s what the CFSv2 is seeing.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
As we head deeper into the fall season of 2015, expect rain to become more focused across the Southern Tier while it becomes drier in the North indicative of the strong El Nino.
October 500mb height anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
October precipitation anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
October temperature anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
November 500mb anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
November precipitation anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
November temperature anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
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TOP IMAGE CREDIT: Leo Hirsbrunner
Hi Mark. It looks as if my subscription for this year has run out and I am unable to figure out how to renew it. When I hit the blue button to try to reach a choice for subscription payment I am not getting anywhere.
Also, I’m trying to respond to a comment you left for me and I can’t find the right place to do that either. It popped up last night but I was too tired to answer and now I can’t access it – presumably because I’m no longer a member.
Help! Thanks…
Hi Kathleen,
Could you email Lhyam at support@markvoganweather.com and he’ll get you sorted out. Cheers.