Europe August Outlook

With the exceptions of SE England, we continue to see an increase in rainfall this July following the hot, dry start for all of the UK. The monthly average is now back around normal compared to way above average during the opening 5 days.

With a particularly cool and at times wet end to July, it’s likely that the central and northern half of the UK as well as much of Ireland will wind up average to below average temperature wise with 100-150% of normal rainfall. That higher rainfall percentage is likely to be over the Northwest Highlands where the ground is saturated.

I expect it to remain very warm compared to normal where it’s been driest. Look at the positive anomalies still over Spain, France and Germany below while it fades further north.

Check out the change in departures as we progressed through the month and how it reflects June.

9th

Credit: WSI Energy

13th

Credit: WSI Energy

20th

Credit: WSI Energy

Today

Credit: WSI Energy

Credit: WSI Energy

Let’s not forget that this was June. Obviously July won’t wind up as cool but it will still be a touch below normal for some.

Credit: WSI Energy

Credit: WSI Energy

The pattern has been persistent following the warm and dry spring. It’s very similar to the previous El Nino spring and summer of 2012.

There was some downright cold feeling days in June and I was walking within Glasgow City Centre a couple of days ago and the wind was downright cold! People were walking about in jackets, it was more like March rather than July.

The above positive and negative anomalies should be of no surprise when you look at the 30 and 90-day precipitation anomaly as well as the North Atlantic/Mediterranean SST profile.

30 days

p_30day_figb

90 days

p_90day_figb

Note the noticeable wetter than normal Scotland, drier than normal South of UK and very dry Europe!

The cold North Atlantic has ultimately led to the cold summer across the bulk of Ireland and the UK (except SE) while a warm east/central Atlantic and particularly Med Basin has led to a warm summer for Southern and Central Europe.

CKiQKKSUsAAnykr

So what can we expect in August?

Being honest, I don’t see much change. With the continued cooler than normal waters surrounding Ireland and the Northern UK, warmer further south and particularly surrounding Iberia and southern Europe, it should remain cooler and wetter across Ireland, Scotland and northern England extending into Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland into Russia while it’s well above normal temperature wise and drier than normal too across Spain, France and southern Europe.

Check out how warm SST’s have gotten within the Mediterranean. Near 32C around Italy, that’s very warm water indeed!

Via WSI Energy

Via WSI Energy

Prepare to sweat if your heading to the Med for a late summer holiday!

Here’s the CFSv2 for August.

500mb height anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m temperature anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precipitation anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

If your interested in following my forecasts in more detail with daily write-ups and videos, be sure to sign-up today for as little as 69p or £3 per month.

Tags: ,

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply

Top