EUROPE: Long Term Pattern Likely To Continue Through Summer’s Final Month!

With the exceptions of SE England, we continue to see an increase in rainfall this July following the hot, dry start for all of the UK. The monthly average is now back around average compared to way above average during the opening 5 days.

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With a cool, wet pattern likely through the remaining 11 days of July, it’s likely that the central and northern half of the UK as well as much of Ireland will wind up average to below average temperature wise with 100-150% of normal rainfall. That higher rainfall percentage is likely to be over the Northwest Highlands.

I expect it to remain very warm compared to normal where it’s been driest. Look at the positive anomalies still over Spain, France and Germany below.

Check out the downturn in temperature departure over the UK as we progress through this month.

9th

Credit: WSI Energy

Credit: WSI Energy

13th

Credit: WSI Energy

Credit: WSI Energy

20th

Credit: WSI Energy

Credit: WSI Energy

Let’s not forget that this was June. The pattern is going back to June and indeed May where it was the UK’s coolest May since 1996.

The above positive and negative anomalies should be of no surprise when you look at the 90-day precipitation anomaly as well as the North Atlantic/Mediterranean SST profile.

Past 7 days

p_7day_figb

30 days

p_30day_figb

90 days

p_90day_figb

Note the noticeable wetter than normal Scotland, drier than normal South of UK and very dry Europe!

Waters ARE warming around the UK as we head into summer’s final month. This could support a very wet autumn.

anomnight_7_16_2015

Check out the difference from back on June 1.

anomnight_6_1_2015

Note how much warmer the nino region is…

So where are we going for August and even September?

Being honest, I don’t see much change. With the continued cooler than normal waters surround Ireland and the Northern UK, warmer further south and particularly surrounding Iberia and southern Europe, it should remain cooler and wetter across Ireland, Scotland and northern England extending into Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland into Russia while it’s well above normal temperature wise and drier than normal too across Spain, France and southern Europe.

Here’s the CFSv2 for August.

500mb anom

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Temp anom

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precip anom

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Interesting to see how it’s got a wetter Iberia and south of France. Feedback of nino/warm water and time of year? That’s possible because I see a wetter but also warmer autumn this year.

CFSv2 is going for an average September temperature wise and drier than normal for the UK but wetter further south.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

THIS FORECAST WILL BE RELEASED TO THE PUBLIC MID WEEK!

No video today due to ongoing technical issues. I hope to have this rectified as soon as possible.

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