Latest Early Thoughts On US Winter 2015-16, El Nino Making For Tough Call…

Written by on July 5, 2015 in Summer 2015, United States of America with 0 Comments

With the increasingly huge influence of the El Nino but continued warm pool in the GOA, there is a great deal of unknowns regarding the upcoming winter season over the United States.

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The exact SSTA profile over the Pacific will be key just like it’s been for the last 2 straight years keeping winters warm in the West, cold in the East.

Via Joe D'Aleo

Via Joe D’Aleo

Projected SSTA’s for the winter season look like this…

Latest CFSv2

glbSSTSeaInd6

Jamstec

ssta_glob_DJF2016_1jun2015

The CFSv2 has the warmer scenario with stronger more east based El Nino, weaker warm pool up in the GOA. The moderate and more central based El Nino, slightly stronger GOA warm pool supports another colder-than-normal winter for the South and East.

Strong El Nino’s tend to favour warmer, wetter winters with cold end games.

Looks like the CFSv2 at this stage and I know it’s very early days, is going for a classic strong El Nino winter. Warm across the North, cool and wet across the South with a good rainy season for California.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits / Levi Cowan

Credit: Tropical Tidbits / Levi Cowan

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2 metre temperature anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Here’s the December through February period off the Jamstec.

temp2_glob_DJF2016_1jun2015

Interestingly it too is going for the warm North/cold South strong to super El Nino look.

Positioning of the warmest waters is extremely important as it can change the large-scale temperature profile completely if there’s a moderate but CENTRAL Pacific based event like we saw in 2009-10. The trouble I have is what will be the greatest influence on the US atmosphere, the warm waters up near Alaska that boosts the AK/NW North America ridge for a 3rd straight winter bringing plentiful cold into the Midwest and East or does an in-close to South America warm pool pump heat up into much of the Lower 48 with an active southern branch bringing good rains to California and across the South?

With time, I shall be weighing in other drivers such as solar, QBO etc. Long time away still but this is the time to starting building a long range forecast. This will be somewhat more challenging compared to the past couple of years.

Be sure to check out this morning’s video for the latest discussion. More on the above in tomorrow’s video.

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