Tonight’s Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Over UK Heralds Cooling Trend Into Next Week

Today’s the last of the truly widespread warm days for the UK as the next cluster of thunderstorms spreading northwards from France tonight marks the start of the true breakdown.

By the middle to later half of next week, a trough, not ridge should dominate much of Europe with the exceptions of the south.

The low stuck spinning out over the Atlantic is now sending it’s next front in tonight. Ahead of it, high pressure, strong sun and warm weather dominates but conditions rapidly go down hill tonight over England, Wales and eventually Scotland.

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Tomorrow sees a much cloudier, less humid day with temps somewhat down on today’s widespread 21-26, locally 28-30. Down over France and it’s another scorcher with Paris expected to top out near 37C.

The next front arrives into Sunday and then as the ridge weakens and gets shifted east, southeast, the Atlantic opens up more. Through the weekend into the start of next week, our winds blow in from the Azores and so southern parts of the UK should still enjoy warm sunny spells and highs of 20-25C but it’s a cooler and cloudier theme once again for Northern Ireland and Scotland.

However by mid next week it appears heights build northward over the Atlantic and this heralds a much more dramatic change with winds set to come in from the north. By no means cold at this time of year, it will bring daytime temps and even nights back into ‘below average’ territory and you can expect to see the more impressive drop in daytime highs in the later of the GFS 2-metre temps below.

Eventually the truly hot air drifts away from Paris with highs returning to the average for early to mid July of about 25C but with heat regrouping down to the south over Iberia, one cannot rule out a toasty return to hot for Paris and much of Northern France with even brief surges into at least the southern half of the UK later in the month.

Below is the latest GFS surface and not the drop in the height field and opening up of the Atlantic once again. Welcome I’m sure by some.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The environment is well primed late this afternoon with abundant low level fuel for the incoming front to work with and that’s why the concern is high for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms across a fairly large swathe of the UK. FLASH FLOODING, gusty winds, hail and frequent lightning are all a concern later this afternoon into the evening.

CAPE values are currently rising along with the thermometer.

gfs-cape--europe-12-C-cape1

gfs-cape--europe-21-C-cape255

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Note the drop in temperature day by day as we progress through particularly next week.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

EPS control 5-day mean 2 metre temperature anomalies keeps it cool across Ireland, UK and Scandinavia but warmer than normal from Paris, Munich southwards.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

See video for the discussion.

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