Strengthening El Nino Forces Record MJO, Influences On US Pattern Down The Road?

Written by on July 2, 2015 in Summer 2015, Tropical, United States of America with 0 Comments

The MJO is at record levels, likely in response to the strengthening El Nino. With a strong phase 6 into 7 episode, the western Pacific basin is lighting up with tropical activity once again as expected putting Japan and adjacent coastal nations on the watch while the Atlantic is under a record strong and persistent high pressure zone, hence the sinking, dry air and lack of anything.

sst_daily_anom

The below chart shows the ‘off the scale’ amplification of the MJO.

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small_1(4)

BOMM_phase_33m_small(11)

Nice graphic shows the current activity over the western Pacific basin.

Credit: NOAA / via @forecastguy

Credit: NOAA / via @forecastguy

Credit: forecastguy

Credit: forecastguy

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Focus over the Pacific spreading eastward over the next 10 days while the Atlantic is under large-scale atmospheric sinking.

CIlhXm3WcAIKV50

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Looks like Japan may be under the gun for a Super Typhoon landfall next week.

Credit: WSI Energy

Credit: WSI Energy

Tropical Storm Chan Hom

Credit: JTWC

Credit: JTWC

TD 10

Credit: JTWC

Credit: JTWC

This increase in activity bears watching for impacts on the US weather pattern as we progress through July. A recurve often teleconnects to an eastern trough while a straight west track into Asia usually means opposite. There’s large variance in the 0-15 day model solution.

Partial recurves are shown in the current modelling which means there potential for enhanced TROUGHS and cool coming into the Central and Eastern US mid to late month.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

GFS operational next 15 days (5-day mean 2m temps/anomalies.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

EPS control on the other hand goes the opposite way with warming by day 10-15.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Finally the CFSv2 drives the core of cool down the Plains but it’s largely below normal across the country overall.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits / Levi Cowan

Credit: Tropical Tidbits / Levi Cowan

Credit: Tropical Tidbits / Levi Cowan

Credit: Tropical Tidbits / Levi Cowan

Credit: Tropical Tidbits / Levi Cowan

Credit: Tropical Tidbits / Levi Cowan

Credit: Tropical Tidbits / Levi Cowan

Credit: Tropical Tidbits / Levi Cowan

See video for the discussion.

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