The MJO is at record levels, likely in response to the strengthening El Nino. With a strong phase 6 into 7 episode, the western Pacific basin is lighting up with tropical activity once again as expected putting Japan and adjacent coastal nations on the watch while the Atlantic is under a record strong and persistent high pressure zone, hence the sinking, dry air and lack of anything.
The below chart shows the ‘off the scale’ amplification of the MJO.
Nice graphic shows the current activity over the western Pacific basin.
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Focus over the Pacific spreading eastward over the next 10 days while the Atlantic is under large-scale atmospheric sinking.
Looks like Japan may be under the gun for a Super Typhoon landfall next week.
Tropical Storm Chan Hom
TD 10
This increase in activity bears watching for impacts on the US weather pattern as we progress through July. A recurve often teleconnects to an eastern trough while a straight west track into Asia usually means opposite. There’s large variance in the 0-15 day model solution.
Partial recurves are shown in the current modelling which means there potential for enhanced TROUGHS and cool coming into the Central and Eastern US mid to late month.
GFS operational next 15 days (5-day mean 2m temps/anomalies.
EPS control on the other hand goes the opposite way with warming by day 10-15.
Finally the CFSv2 drives the core of cool down the Plains but it’s largely below normal across the country overall.
See video for the discussion.
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