NEXT WEEK: All-Time Heat Records May Be Challenged Over Parts Of Europe But UK Misses Out!

Written by on June 23, 2015 in Rest of Europe, Spring 2015, Summer 2015 with 0 Comments

Make the most of this fine, dry and settled weather currently over the UK and Ireland because it ain’t going to last I’m afraid. A sprawling low with the remains of once tropical storm Bill will make for a cool, wet and breezy end to the week and start to the weekend.

While a trough deepens off Europe, heights build further east in response and models remain consistent at driving a monster hot dome over much of the mainland early next week. The latest run of the ECMWF takes heights to an incredible 600dm. That’s about as strong a summer ridge as you ever get and with dry ground over particularly Iberia, heat records are likely to be challenged. However another factor is that the warmest waters compared to normal over the Mediterranean look to align beautifully directly underneath (surrounding Italy) the core of the 600dm high.

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This may have potential to challenge all-time records over south-central Europe early to mid next week.

The heat looks to pulse back and forth over the SOUTHERN UK but it appears we lie on the far western flank of the ridge and therefore we see very little of the real and likely dangerous heat. In saying that, we may see London approach or surpass 30C on a day or two early next week but up here in Scotland and back across Northern Ireland and the Republic, it’s looking cooler, windier and often wet with a potential plume of tropical moisture riding the boundary which could lead to a spell of heavy and persistent rain for areas such as the West Highlands of Scotland.

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Here’s a glance at the latest 500mb anomaly charts off the ECMWF.

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

With this type of high developing, one must look at how much water is in the ground when considering temperature.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Certainly much of Spain and Portugal is drier than normal but it’s 50-50 over towards Italy where the core of the ridge is expected to be, therefore it’s going to be interesting to see just how hot it’ll get.

Here’s a look at the surface maps for the same period and note the off and on wet weather over Ireland and the UK and even into the continent ahead of the major heat which doesn’t truly kick in till late weekend and early to mid next week.

 

Credit: Levi Cowan / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The GFS ensemble shows the heat ridges focusing over south-central Europe where I had forecasted it to be a warmer-than-normal summer in this region.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

List of all-time heat records for countries across Europe. Info courtesy of Wikipedia.

Europe
 Greece
48.0 °C (118.4 °F ) Athens, Greece 10 July 1977[51]
 Andorra 38.5 °C (101.3 °F) Andorra la Vella  ?
 Austria 40.5 °C (104.9 °F) Bad Deutsch-Altenburg 8 August 2013[52]
 Belarus 38.9 °C (102 °F) Gomel 7 August 2010[17]
 Belgium 38.8 °C (102 °F) Uccle 27 June 1947
 Bosnia and Herzegovina 43.2 °C (111.16 °F) Mostar (Herzegovina, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina) 31 July 1900
 Bulgaria 45.2 °C (113.3 °F) Sadovo, Plovdiv Province 5 August 1916[53]
 Croatia 42.8 °C (109 °F) Ploče 5 August 1998[54]
 Cyprus 46.6 °C (115.9 °F) Lefkoniko 1 August 2010[17]
 Czech Republic 40.4 °C (104.7 °F) Dobřichovice, Prague-West District 20 August 2012[55]
 Denmark 36.4 °C (97.5 °F) Holstebro, Midtjylland 10 August 1975[56]
 Estonia 35.6 °C (96.1 °F) Võru 11 August 1992[57]
 Finland 37.2 °C (99 °F) Liperi 29 July 2010[58]
 France 44.1 °C (111.4 °F) Conqueyrac / Saint-Christol-lès-Alès 12 August 2003[59]
 Germany 40.2 °C (104.4 °F) Gärmersdorf bei Amberg / Karlsruhe / March (Breisgau) / Freiburg 27 July 1983 / 9 August 2003 / 13 August 2003 / 27 July 2013[60][61]
 Hungary 41.9 °C (107.4 °F) Kiskunhalas 20 July 2007[62]
 Iceland 30.5 °C (86.9 °F) Teigarhorn, Djúpivogur 22 June 1939[63][64]
 Ireland 33.3 °C (92 °F) Kilkenny Castle, County Kilkenny 26 June 1887[65]
 Italy 47 °C or 48.5 °C (116.6 or 119.3 °F) Foggia, Apulia or Catenanuova, Sicily (Catenanuova’s record is disputed) 25 June 2007 / 10 August 1999[66][67]
 Latvia 37.8 °C (100.03 °F) Ventspils 4 August 2014[68]
 Lithuania 37.5 °C (99.5 °F) Zarasai, Utena County 30 July 1994[69]
 Macedonia 45.7 °C(114.26 °F) Demir Kapija, Demir Kapija Municipality 24 July 2007[70]
 Malta 43.8 °C (110.84 °F) Malta International Airport 9 August 1999[71]
 Moldova 42.4 °C(108.3 °F) Falesti 7 August 2012[72]
 Montenegro 44.8 °C (112.6 °F) Podgorica & Danilovgrad 16 August 2007 / 8 August 2012[72]
 Netherlands 38.6 °C (102 °F) Warnsveld 23 August 1944[73]
 Norway 35.6 °C (96.1 °F) Nesbyen, Buskerud 20 June 1970[74]
 Poland 40.2 °C (104.4 °F) Record measured on German territory at that time: Proskau, Landkreis Oppeln, Oberschlesien (now Prószków, Opole Voivodeship). The record in Poland proper at that time was attained on the same day by the village of Zbiersk at 40.0 °C. 29 July 1921[75]
 Portugal 47.4 °C (117.3 °F) Amareleja, Beja 1 August 2003[76]
 Romania 44.5 °C (112.1 °F) Ion Sion, Brăila County 10 August 1951[77]
 Russia (European part only) 45.4 °C (113.7 °F) Utta, Kalmykia 12 July 2010[78]
 Serbia 44.9 °C (112.8 °F) Smederevska Palanka, Podunavlje District 24 July 2007[79]
 Slovenia 40.8 °C (105.4 °F) Cerklje ob Krki 8 August 2013[80]
 Spain 47.2 °C (116.9 °F) Murcia 4 July 1994[81]
 Sweden 38.0 °C (100.4 °F) Ultuna, Uppsala County / Målilla, Kalmar County 9 July 1933 / 29 June 1947[82]
  Switzerland 41.5 °C (106.7 °F) Grono, Moesa District 11 August 2003[83]
 Ukraine 42.0 °C (107.6 °F) Luhansk 12 August 2010[84]
 United Kingdom
 England
38.5 °C (101.3 °F) Faversham, Kent 10 August 2003[85]
 Northern Ireland 30.8 °C (87.4 °F) Knockarevan, County Fermanagh / Belfast, County Antrim 30 June 1976 / 12 July 1983[85]
 Scotland 32.9 °C (91.2 °F) Greycrook, Scottish Borders 9 August 2003[85]
 Wales 35.2 °C (95.4 °F) Hawarden Bridge, Flintshire 2 August 1990

Shall be releasing my July Outlook tomorrow morning so stay tuned! Be sure to watch this morning’s video for the latest discussion.

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