Make the most of this fine, dry and settled weather currently over the UK and Ireland because it ain’t going to last I’m afraid. A sprawling low with the remains of once tropical storm Bill will make for a cool, wet and breezy end to the week and start to the weekend.
While a trough deepens off Europe, heights build further east in response and models remain consistent at driving a monster hot dome over much of the mainland early next week. The latest run of the ECMWF takes heights to an incredible 600dm. That’s about as strong a summer ridge as you ever get and with dry ground over particularly Iberia, heat records are likely to be challenged. However another factor is that the warmest waters compared to normal over the Mediterranean look to align beautifully directly underneath (surrounding Italy) the core of the 600dm high.
This may have potential to challenge all-time records over south-central Europe early to mid next week.
The heat looks to pulse back and forth over the SOUTHERN UK but it appears we lie on the far western flank of the ridge and therefore we see very little of the real and likely dangerous heat. In saying that, we may see London approach or surpass 30C on a day or two early next week but up here in Scotland and back across Northern Ireland and the Republic, it’s looking cooler, windier and often wet with a potential plume of tropical moisture riding the boundary which could lead to a spell of heavy and persistent rain for areas such as the West Highlands of Scotland.
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Here’s a glance at the latest 500mb anomaly charts off the ECMWF.
With this type of high developing, one must look at how much water is in the ground when considering temperature.
Certainly much of Spain and Portugal is drier than normal but it’s 50-50 over towards Italy where the core of the ridge is expected to be, therefore it’s going to be interesting to see just how hot it’ll get.
Here’s a look at the surface maps for the same period and note the off and on wet weather over Ireland and the UK and even into the continent ahead of the major heat which doesn’t truly kick in till late weekend and early to mid next week.
The GFS ensemble shows the heat ridges focusing over south-central Europe where I had forecasted it to be a warmer-than-normal summer in this region.
List of all-time heat records for countries across Europe. Info courtesy of Wikipedia.
Europe Greece |
48.0 °C (118.4 °F ) | Athens, Greece | 10 July 1977[51] |
---|---|---|---|
Andorra | 38.5 °C (101.3 °F) | Andorra la Vella | ? |
Austria | 40.5 °C (104.9 °F) | Bad Deutsch-Altenburg | 8 August 2013[52] |
Belarus | 38.9 °C (102 °F) | Gomel | 7 August 2010[17] |
Belgium | 38.8 °C (102 °F) | Uccle | 27 June 1947 |
Bosnia and Herzegovina | 43.2 °C (111.16 °F) | Mostar (Herzegovina, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina) | 31 July 1900 |
Bulgaria | 45.2 °C (113.3 °F) | Sadovo, Plovdiv Province | 5 August 1916[53] |
Croatia | 42.8 °C (109 °F) | Ploče | 5 August 1998[54] |
Cyprus | 46.6 °C (115.9 °F) | Lefkoniko | 1 August 2010[17] |
Czech Republic | 40.4 °C (104.7 °F) | Dobřichovice, Prague-West District | 20 August 2012[55] |
Denmark | 36.4 °C (97.5 °F) | Holstebro, Midtjylland | 10 August 1975[56] |
Estonia | 35.6 °C (96.1 °F) | Võru | 11 August 1992[57] |
Finland | 37.2 °C (99 °F) | Liperi | 29 July 2010[58] |
France | 44.1 °C (111.4 °F) | Conqueyrac / Saint-Christol-lès-Alès | 12 August 2003[59] |
Germany | 40.2 °C (104.4 °F) | Gärmersdorf bei Amberg / Karlsruhe / March (Breisgau) / Freiburg | 27 July 1983 / 9 August 2003 / 13 August 2003 / 27 July 2013[60][61] |
Hungary | 41.9 °C (107.4 °F) | Kiskunhalas | 20 July 2007[62] |
Iceland | 30.5 °C (86.9 °F) | Teigarhorn, Djúpivogur | 22 June 1939[63][64] |
Ireland | 33.3 °C (92 °F) | Kilkenny Castle, County Kilkenny | 26 June 1887[65] |
Italy | 47 °C or 48.5 °C (116.6 or 119.3 °F) | Foggia, Apulia or Catenanuova, Sicily (Catenanuova’s record is disputed) | 25 June 2007 / 10 August 1999[66][67] |
Latvia | 37.8 °C (100.03 °F) | Ventspils | 4 August 2014[68] |
Lithuania | 37.5 °C (99.5 °F) | Zarasai, Utena County | 30 July 1994[69] |
Macedonia | 45.7 °C(114.26 °F) | Demir Kapija, Demir Kapija Municipality | 24 July 2007[70] |
Malta | 43.8 °C (110.84 °F) | Malta International Airport | 9 August 1999[71] |
Moldova | 42.4 °C(108.3 °F) | Falesti | 7 August 2012[72] |
Montenegro | 44.8 °C (112.6 °F) | Podgorica & Danilovgrad | 16 August 2007 / 8 August 2012[72] |
Netherlands | 38.6 °C (102 °F) | Warnsveld | 23 August 1944[73] |
Norway | 35.6 °C (96.1 °F) | Nesbyen, Buskerud | 20 June 1970[74] |
Poland | 40.2 °C (104.4 °F) | Record measured on German territory at that time: Proskau, Landkreis Oppeln, Oberschlesien (now Prószków, Opole Voivodeship). The record in Poland proper at that time was attained on the same day by the village of Zbiersk at 40.0 °C. | 29 July 1921[75] |
Portugal | 47.4 °C (117.3 °F) | Amareleja, Beja | 1 August 2003[76] |
Romania | 44.5 °C (112.1 °F) | Ion Sion, Brăila County | 10 August 1951[77] |
Russia (European part only) | 45.4 °C (113.7 °F) | Utta, Kalmykia | 12 July 2010[78] |
Serbia | 44.9 °C (112.8 °F) | Smederevska Palanka, Podunavlje District | 24 July 2007[79] |
Slovenia | 40.8 °C (105.4 °F) | Cerklje ob Krki | 8 August 2013[80] |
Spain | 47.2 °C (116.9 °F) | Murcia | 4 July 1994[81] |
Sweden | 38.0 °C (100.4 °F) | Ultuna, Uppsala County / Målilla, Kalmar County | 9 July 1933 / 29 June 1947[82] |
Switzerland | 41.5 °C (106.7 °F) | Grono, Moesa District | 11 August 2003[83] |
Ukraine | 42.0 °C (107.6 °F) | Luhansk | 12 August 2010[84] |
United Kingdom England |
38.5 °C (101.3 °F) | Faversham, Kent | 10 August 2003[85] |
Northern Ireland | 30.8 °C (87.4 °F) | Knockarevan, County Fermanagh / Belfast, County Antrim | 30 June 1976 / 12 July 1983[85] |
Scotland | 32.9 °C (91.2 °F) | Greycrook, Scottish Borders | 9 August 2003[85] |
Wales | 35.2 °C (95.4 °F) | Hawarden Bridge, Flintshire | 2 August 1990 |
Shall be releasing my July Outlook tomorrow morning so stay tuned! Be sure to watch this morning’s video for the latest discussion.
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