EUROPE: Record Heatwave To End What’s Been A Chilly June?

It was a cold Fathers Day over Central Europe.

Credit: Michael Ventrice/WSI Energy

Credit: Michael Ventrice/WSI Energy

Last 7 days not much better…

Credit: Michael Ventrice/WSI Energy

Credit: Michael Ventrice/WSI Energy

The water temperature anomaly over the Atlantic and Mediterranean has a lot to say for the type of pattern we’ve had across Europe.

anomnight_6_18_2015

Temp anomaly for last 30-days.

Credit: Michael Ventrice/WSI Energy

Credit: Michael Ventrice/WSI Energy

Things may be about to flip around BIG TIME as we head for the end of June beginning of July! A major plume of potentially record-breaking heat is likely to come off Africa and spread across Iberia and much of southern and even central Europe later this week and particularly the weekend into early next week. Look at the heights both the GFS and ECMWF are portraying by early next week, centred over North Italy!

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

ECMWF

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Levi Cown / Tropical Tidbits

While the focus of heat will remain over the mainland of Europe, it appears the South and East of the UK gets in on some significant warmth. Nothing particularly unusual for the end of June but we could be talking 30C in London next weekend with this setup. Looks like Scotland and Northern Ireland miss out as it stands now.

The GFS is printing out impressive maximum highs, especially by the weekend and early next week, however I think it’s underdone over areas on the south side of the Alps. This air mass with waters as warm as they are surrounding Italy has the potentially to produce 40s and a challenge at all-time records IF these charts were to hold true.

According to meteorologist Steph Ball down in Gibraltar, the June record for Spain is 45.2C, this may be challenged!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

As for tonight, well a northerly flow dragging in chillier air down the UK in the wake of the weekend low, sets the stage for an unusually cold night over rural Britain. Don’t be surprised if something it’s 0C overnight with patchy frost in spots!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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