Summer Solstice This Sunday But Any Sign Of Summer?

Believe it or not but the summer solstice is a mere two days away. I know many will ask, what summer? The good thing is that the warmest period of the year comes AFTER the solstice despite the fact that nights ‘technically’ shorten again. Just like the coldest period of the year follows the winter solstice on Dec 21. There’s a lag.

Credit: BBC Weather

Credit: BBC Weather

Unfortunately our pattern is taking a turn for the worse. Could it be much worse? Yes and it will turn decidedly cooler for areas that have scraped ‘normal’. That area is a small one, confined really to southern England where it’s been generally in the 19-23C range of late.

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As we progress through next week, southern England will join the rest of the UK in a cool and often cloudy/showery regime with temps below average. Looks like even London may see highs of only 17-19C at times next week. Why? Our beloved Azores high which has been stuck just SW of Ireland and keeping it ‘relatively mild’ in recent weeks, will weaken allowing low pressure off the Atlantic to move in.

As for N Ireland, Scotland, N England and even into parts of the Netherlands, Denmark and southern Scandinavia, it’s been a very back and forth setup but cooler than normal thanks to a persistent NW flow.

No real change to the overall thinking for next week. We get a break it appears Tuesday, possibly Wednesday as high pressure controls our air space but not for long. With no Azores high to deflect ‘bad weather’ and a somewhat stronger westerly flow (jet stream), lows will progress west to east through next week and likely on into the following week.

I will have thoughts on July in tomorrow’s post!

Here’s the latest¬†ECMWF surface through next week. Oh as for this weekend, looking showery and cool for most. For dad’s day on Sunday, low pressure dominates Scotland with cloud and some wet weather, staying chilly while drier., brighter across England and Wales.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Negative heights over Ireland, UK and near continent now extend into July on the GFS ensemble.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Due to this pattern, the cooler-than-normal trend shall continue but if you or family/friends are heading down to the Mediterranean, it’s going to be warmer-than-normal, helped by the fact the sea is running 1-3C above normal.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

No UK ridge on the CFSv2 weeklies through Jul 16!

wk1_wk2_20150618_z500

wk3_wk4_20150618_z500

See this morning’s video for the latest discussion.

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