Bill To Bring Pattern Change To Europe For Final 10 Days Of June

More often than you’d think, when tropical heat gets lifted north into the mid-latitudes, a ripple effect is created and quite often, this signals a large-scale pattern shift.

Up till now and really since the beginning of 2015, there’s been a fight between the Azores high and Iceland low. The weather has always been that drier and more settled across the South of the UK while more changeable in the North.

Take a look at the 500mb geopotential height field from Jan 1 through May. The cold Atlantic has forced a much stronger Icelandic trough (+NAO) but warmer than normal water down into the sub-tropical east Atlantic has meant a stronger than normal Azores high also. There’s been a fight between the two for the best part of 6-10 months.

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Look at how the current SST anomalies mirror the upper air anomalies above!

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The current height field from Atlantic into Europe pretty much remains the same, albeit the Azores high has expanded and warmed with the time of year.

While we’ve had a predominantly high pressure pattern here, the Atlantic has been the driver behind our chillier than normal weather. Those winds blowing in off a 1-3C colder-than-normal ocean has meant air temps have been cooler-than-normal as a result.

So where does Bill (currently over the US) come into all this?

Bill of course is a feature that is lifting out of the tropics and this will release heat into the mid latitudes. While no major storm or hurricane, that’s the primary purpose. Taking heat from the tropics and redistributing it into the higher latitudes. Over the next 5 days, Bill will lift NE, eventually exiting North America early next week. By forcing this warmth out of NA into the westerlies or jet stream, a reaction occurs, forcing a stronger jet stream and reamplification of the pattern across not only the North Atlantic but potentially across the hemisphere because there’s a realignment.

It appears Bill’s downstream influence on the upper atmosphere will perhaps not burst but weaken the Azores high and by doing so, we should find ourselves in a much more ‘low pressure’ dominated pattern next week into the following week.

Check out the ECMWF through next week and notice how heights are lower and Atlantic lows become more dominant once again.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Note the west-east negative extending from Atlantic into Europe while the positive is supressed to the south. Haven’t seen this in a while.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

This heralds wetter times for Ireland and the UK.

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See video for today’s discussion.

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