There’s no real chance to the overall idea for the upcoming work week. We’ve went from 27C two days ago down to 18C in and around London today. Cooler, cloudier and for some, wet as winds have turned to a NW direction. By the time we reach Wednesday, we’ll be back near 26C in the Southeast again.
As for the rest of the UK, ridging builds later today as low pressure exits into the North Sea but during Tuesday-Wednesday, a front sags south over Northern Ireland, Scotland and the North of England with increased cloud, wind and outbreaks of rain, especially in western areas but heights punch back towards 1030mb as warm, subtropical source air makes a return to central and southern Britain.
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By Thursday into Friday the front sweeps south into the near continent and so we’re all back in the cooler, fresher air but not before long, the high builds back in from the west by next weekend. All in all it’s a very up and down pattern, remaining heavily influenced by the cold N Atlantic.
A colder-than-normal N Atlantic promotes high pressure, less rain while a warm Atlantic like we’ve seen for the best part of 25 years, promotes lower pressure and increased rainfall.
That’s a lot of the reason why it’s high pressure and not low pressure that’s constantly building out to the west and moving UK/Ireland-bound.
Not a whole lot of rain to come over the next 10 days across Ireland and the UK, especially the South and Southwest UK.
The El Nino remains a big factor this summer and despite drier outlooks in the longer range models and a cold Atlantic that too favours a drier longer term solution, I remain with the idea of a cool but also wet July, August with a mixture of everything, including that of warm, dry and sunny weather.
Here’s the latest run of the ECMWF which basically has the same outlook as yesterday and the day before.
A cool and cloudy Sunday gives way to an unusually cold start to Monday and the midway point of June (SUMMER’S first month!)
GFS 2 metre temps for this afternoon and tomorrow morning look like this.
Here comes the next 48-hour warming trend before the next front comes acalling from the north…
Mon PM
Tue PM
Wed PM should get to 25/26C in and around London/Southeast.
For more on the longer term, see today’s video for the details.
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