91L Expected To Develop, Could Dump 10-20 Inches Of Rain On An Already Saturated Texas!

After a record wet May, the Houston NWS office received an impressive 6.71 inches of rain yesterday. That’s the biggest 24-hour rainfall total in over 5 years and there could be even worse to follow as 91L gathers to the south.

The MJO pulse is crossing from east Pacific into the Gulf, hence the increase in convection around the Caribbean and especially the Yucatan where a trough is leaving. 91L, located on the NW coast of the Yucatan appears to be struggling with strong NW shear but that shear is expected to ease off later today into tomorrow.

TOP IMAGE: Current view of Galveston Beach, TX today / Credit: WeatherBug

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Even if this system didn’t develop (likely to do so once shear relaxes), it would still pose a big flood threat to an already saturated Texas.

Here’s the current visible and infrared views this morning. Not looking great. Very lopsided.

vis0-lalo

rb0-lalo

Despite it’s very lopsided look, NHC now has this up to 60% chance for development within the next 48 hours.

Credit: NHC

Credit: NHC

The reason? Not only is the MJO favourable and the overall atmospheric environment is becoming more favourable as one trough leaves and another approaches from the west but check out how warm the Gulf continues to be compared to normal.

anoma_6_11_2015

Waters between the two projected points that this system is expected to go between, is well within the 27C or 80F criteria for intensification.

gulfmex_fc

Via Brad Panovich

Via Brad Panovich

As already stated, the MJO is favourable.

am_ir_monthly_1

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While we need to watch this closely for intensification into a tropical storm or hurricane, this poses a big flood threat as the ground is already saturated and it’s rather alarming at how much rainfall the models are printing out. Yes, it shows a bulls eye of nearly 20 inches near Corpus Christi within a mere 4-day period.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Not your typical beach day at Cozumel and Cancun due to the presence of 91L.

Cozumel

Credit: webcamsdemexico.com

Credit: webcamsdemexico.com

Cancun

Credit: webcamsdemexico.com

Credit: webcamsdemexico.com

Punta Cancun

Credit: webcamsdemexico.com

Credit: webcamsdemexico.com

Latest ECMWF surface shows the system crossing the western Gulf and hitting the Texas coast south of Houston by 84h.

ecmwfued---caribbean-24-C-mslpthkpcp_whiteecmwfued---caribbean-48-C-mslpthkpcp_white

ecmwfued---caribbean-72-C-mslpthkpcp_white

ecmwfued---ussc-84-C-mslpthkpcp_white

Be sure to watch this morning’s video for more.

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