As shown in today’s video, the upper pattern is beautifully mirroring the soil moisture content. By that I mean it’s warm where dry and cool and wet where wet. Warmer-than-normal water, dry ground combined with time of year means a strengthening SE or Bermuda ridge and it’s turning increasingly hot underneath.
Check out the 7-day QPF, there’s a distinct ‘ring of fire’ surrounding a summer-like 582 high centred over Florida.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]
That high will approach 590dm Monday, forcing surface highs beyond the 100-degree mark on the Carolina coastal plain. Flooding rains will affect areas on the outer periphery, i.e Texas, Louisiana up into parts of the Ohio Valley. Of course this means heavy rains returning to areas worst affected by record rain/flooding during May.
Philadelphia soared to a seasonal high and record tying 95 degrees yesterday but the core of the heat, while over the Mid-Atlantic in recent days will shift south with a more active, cooler pattern returning to the Northeast say from Philadelphia northward this week.
Further south and while it’s been upper 80s/low 90s from Dallas to Charlotte, highs will soar into the mid 90s to low 100s. In the steamy Northeast, we see it drop into the 70s and 80s.
ECMWF 2-metre temps for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Credit: AccuWeather
Credit: AccuWeather
The position of the Southeast high (Bermuda) means there’s a Caribbean to Great Plains connection. Heavy rains are making a return to Texas up into the Ohio Valley (around the western periphery of the high). With a favourable MJO, this setup as well as bringing a plume of rich tropical moisture into the Gulf Coast and Texas, there’s a window of opportunity for something trying to developing near the Yucatan and lift north.
In fact NHC has highlighted an area 91L between the Yucatan and Texas with a 30% chance of development.
A LOT of rain is expected to push into the Upper Texas coast.
Check out the plume of moisture extending from the Yucatan to Upper Texas coast. Nearly 10 inches of rain for the Cozumel/Cancun areas… Is the model sniffing out something?
Credit: AccuWeather
It’s also getting seasonably hot under a more classic Four Corners high too.
Check out 5-day mean 500mb positive/negative mirroring where the ground is dry/wet underneath over the next 15 days.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
2-metre temps/anomalies.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
CFSv2 weeklies are strikingly similar.
As for the CFSv2, it’s showing an eventual drier pattern extending west from the Southeast to Southern Plains during the mid to 2nd half of summer. That suggests a warmer 2nd half to summer for the South extending up through the Tennessee Valley and the Mid-Atlantic. Helped greatly by the abnormally warm water off the coast.
Check out this morning’s video for the discussion.
[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]
Recent Comments