Remainder Of June Looks Dry For UK & Ireland But Summer Overall?

For much of May, the CFSv2 has had June as a drier than normal month for the UK and Ireland while wetter down into Iberia, so far, that appears to be a pretty good call based on the current setup and projected continuation of high pressure dominance. The CFSv2 weeklies show a dry 2nd half to June for the UK/Ireland remaining in control. I can’t disagree.

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The GFS ensemble shows a mean ridge core just west of Ireland day 5-10 and then it shifts north in a more ‘northern blocking’ fashion. Overall, this is a dry pattern for the UK.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

What’s interesting is that the model has flipped around from it’s original wet to dry July-August period. That’s quite interesting and could be down to the continued growth in cold water over the Atlantic.

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The cold North Atlantic does tend to favour drier weather in summer over Western Europe while a warmer ocean favours more increased rainfall, however it’s the El Nino that keeps me holding onto the ‘wetter’ theme as well as cooler.

Previous run of the CFSv2 for July-August.

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New run

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euPrecMonInd2

July-August period.

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The Jamstec also has it dry…

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See this morning’s video for a detailed look at next week and beyond!

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