Well the much anticipated and well earned surge of summer late this week appears to be shorter and less intense than first seen by the models. We saw this in May and it’s happening again in June. Why might that be? WET GROUND and COLD NORTH ATLANTIC.
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Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Just look at how much that cold water is expanding, practically cover the entire North Atlantic!
Since we’re now into the early part of summer and the atmosphere is now entering a more summer state, there’s feedback now kicking in from the cold water to our west as well as the wet ground. Our winds are colder than they should be purely because water temps are a good 1-3C below what they should be and because the ground is now wet, this is lowering heights aloft, supressing the level of warming in the air. More of the sun’s energy goes into evaporation rather than heating and there’s also a tendency for thunderstorms to pop more easily.
Way back late last week and through the weekend, the models had a real surge of summer through the second half of this working week with peak temps approaching 30C over Southern England by this weekend, now we’ll see peak temps during Friday and even at that, we’re talking 25C with increased chances of showers and storms developing.
In fact it’s looking like a struggle to get the warmth north off the continent at all as an Atlantic low approaches Scotland later Thursday into Friday. A front advances SE bringing cooler, cloudier, windier and wetter conditions across N Ireland, Scotland and Northern England supressing highs to just 12-15C. Cooler air crossing over top of the northward moving heat and humidity means showers and storms could fire early on Friday, killing the build-up of heat. Any real warmth I think is confined to the Southeast corner of England.
GFS surface looks messy at 12z Friday.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
GFS 2m temps at 15z Friday.
This was the same chart for the same period back on Sunday!
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
That front slides SE and we’re back in the cooler NW flow once again as early as Saturday, when models just days ago had the warmest temps of the year.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Now Saturday’s highs look like this.
I believe it’s that kind of summer this year…
There is good news however! Next week is look MUCH more settled as ridging builds in, capping off the atmosphere and allowing plenty of sustained sunshine. This isn’t a particularly warm high but because the sun is strong, we should see temps climb UK-wide into the 16-23C range.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
This pattern supports a much wetter central Europe as storms will fire along the eastern boundary of the sprawling high.
Duration of this settled spell looks likely to be in the 5-7 day range.
See today’s video for more.
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