As the equatorial Pacific continues to heat, so the North Atlantic continues to cool and it’s that increasingly ‘colder-than-normal North Atlantic’ that’s catching my attention. Our current and recent past weather pattern here in Western Europe has a predominantly westerly or Atlantic pattern and with our winds blowing off this colder than normal water, we are seeing temperatures across Ireland, UK and near continent cooler than they should be.
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According to Dr Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, the AMO back last month was coldest since records began back in 1950.
COLD AMO: Warmer Winters/Drier Summers
In the last 2 years, the PDO has grown increasingly warm while the Atlantic has been cooling. However, what came first the chicken or the egg. Has the effect of the Pacific warming and it’s shifting weather patterns forced the Atlantic to cool? Either way BOTH have had WARMING influence on Europe’s winter with much more Atlantic influence as a cold North Atlantic supports low mid and upper level heights over the ocean and above normal heights over the continent. Like we’ve seen in both of the past two winters, there’s less likelihood of a -NAO again in 2015-16.
A warmer Atlantic supports more winter blocking highs and wetter summers in the UK while a cold Atlantic supports the opposite with more +NAO and drier summers with less heat and water vapor being released into the atmosphere. However, a cooler, wetter summer in 2015 is more likely in my opinion with the El Nino.
Because our pattern looks likely (according to model guidance) to continue in a westerly or Atlantic mode and there doesn’t appear to be any warming of the N Atlantic over the next 6 months, I’ve drawn a conclusion that this summer may turn out to be pretty cool. That’s if the Atlantic influence was to persist.
Current global SSTA’s show the strong warming in the Pacific vs the increasingly cold Atlantic which is lapping up against Ireland and the UK.
GFS ensemble shows a positive but neutral NAO into early June. This promotes a continued ‘cool westerly flow’ off the Atlantic into Europe.
Jamstec sees a cool summer for exposed Western Europe but warm over the continent with a much warmer than normal Mediterranean Sea.
However, while summer may be colder than normal, the Atlantic’s influence may reserve come next winter with another season similar to 2013-14, 2014-15 as this cold water promotes another +NAO winter.
See video for today’s discussion.
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