WESTERN EUROPE: Wet Ground = Cooler (& Wetter) Summer

So far so good with regards to my overall forecast for the summer. In case you’ve forgotten, it’s very near here and it doesn’t feel like it that’s for sure.

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It’s been a miserable open to the new working week for many but this ‘wetter pattern’ is now well established with soils recovering well following a dry back end to winter and spring but just like with the last El Nino (albeit much weaker), we’ve seen the big flip from dry and warm to wet and cool. What happens in the transitionary months, particularly April-May is key to shaping the summer atmosphere.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

As for the upcoming 5 days, NW winds today through Wednesday will keep things cool with frequent, blustery showers rattling in but through the 2nd half of the week, the high positioned to the WNW will shift to a more WSW position and therefore our flow turns more westerly once again providing a more north to south split in weather conditions again with cooler, wetter and windier in the North over Northern Ireland and Scotland, drier, sunnier and therefore warmer across the bulk of England and Wales.

The GFS ensemble builds and shifts the Atlantic high in closer to the UK between the opening and following 5 day period.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

CFSv2 is going for a -NAO June-July with a weakening of the mean Greenland ridge by August. Though this model is highly changeable, I tend to agree with it’s cooler and wetter solution.

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See video for the discussion.

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  1. Joseph Mitchell says:

    I’m afraid with the facts that I can see, I don’t see it being a cool and wet summer, I see it as being the opposite, especially if a negative NAO is being forecast for June and July, does that not make for warm and dry conditions? I’m aware that El Nino is around this year, but again, I thought that gave warm to hot conditions and also suppressed rain? I can see at least the next 2 months if not the whole summer being bone dry again, with next to no rainfall.

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