WESTERN EUROPE: North-South Split Next Week As Upper Pattern Becomes Zonal

Today and tomorrow will be heavily influenced by wind and rain as low pressure continues to lift north over the UK. Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph may hamper shipping through the English Channel today while focus turns to Scotland/N England come Wednesday as the low deepens into the 970s (mb).

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High pressure temporarily builds in Thu-Fri but it’s really a break between lows as one exits and another gathers to the SW and heads our way for the weekend.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Here comes the next system into the first half of the weekend. GFS shows heavier rain during Saturday.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Then the Saturday system exits and another brief high pulls in behind, making for a cold, frosty start to Sunday but a better day than Saturday. Make the most of it, just look at what’s winding up out over the Atlantic.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The latest ECMWF shows that system crossing the NORTHERN UK which in turn keeps the bulk of England and Wales dry, even sunny with a stiff SW wind and in May you know what that means… the possible return of low to even mid 20s while Northern Ireland and Scotland get soaked!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

That’s the type of scenario that can lead to a multi-day flooding rain event for the West Highlands as moisture can stream all the way from the tropics!

As you can see, a day later and that moisture plume remains on the northern flank of the ridge, running up against the western upslopes. High pressure and mild weather dominates the entire western mainland of Europe with Denmark remaining just south of the boundary.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Looking out further and mid and late next week (fantasy land) the ECMWF continues to bring in the lows on a westerly upper flow but enough breaks between for some decent warmth to lift northward.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

This exact scenario is by no means written in stone. It’s ONE model and ONE run, it can and will change but the overall thinking appears to be a north-south split next week and the GFS ensemble 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies show a more zonal setup beyond day 5.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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