A little tight for time today but be sure to watch this morning’s video for more detail on the upcoming bank holiday weekend.
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As for later next week and the weekend, well the models keep showing the return of ridging and a decent surge of warmth back into the UK and western mainland Europe.
ECMWF
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
GFS showing much the same and for the same time period (next weekend)
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Both models are iffy for Ireland and Scotland as a frontal zone is close or overhead but to it’s sunnier east where winds will be transporting sub-tropical warmth NE’ward, well I expect low to mid 20s potentially for England and Wales, possibly eastern Scotland.
Does this potential warm-up last? That’s a great question. Both GFS ensemble and operational certainly have a positive height field in the day 10-15.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
CFSv2 weeklies also see the flip but it’s later than ECMWF and GFS.
This flip back to Atlantic trough/Europe ridge coincides with ridging building on the US East Coast around the same period.
The GFS ensemble takes the NAO back towards neutral hence the return of ridging but then flips it back negative which is where I think it’s likely to remain in the means through the summer.
This warming is likely just a tease with a wet May overall.
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