Europe May Outlook

Well April turned out drier and warmer than I had expected. However, I did believe we would see our first true warm spell of 2015, that turned out to be nearly the entire month.

Check out how clear the skies over the UK were yesterday. Views like this have become common this month as high pressure has been unusually persistent.

Credit: Met Office

Credit: Met Office

As a consequence to that persistent high pressure, much of the UK is far drier than normal and based on current and recent past pattern, it would be easy to believe that this was a sign of things to come. Unfortunately our pattern takes a dramatic turn as we close this work week. Following a messy upcoming weekend of April showers, longer spells of rain along with some glimpses of sunshine, next week looks rather cold with a direct northerly discharge of arctic air (late spring version) that will supress temps by day in single figures while snow returns to the hills.

Scenes like this are very possible over high level road routes of Highland Scotland late weekend and next week.

Credit: Mark Vogan

Credit: Mark Vogan

Based on past patterns driven by similar factors that we have in play now and all the evidence in front of me, I believe our luck is about to run out as once this high deflates and gets shoved into the continent, it may be tough to get it back again.

Under this large high pressure zone, waters have warmed considerably and with the continued strengthening of El Nino, there can often be a switch flick from dry to wet. I believe this shift marks that switch flick.

SST’s now comfortably above normal surrounding the UK extending SW all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Also note the strong warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific.

anomnight_4_23_2015

So, May is certainly going to start off cold and unsettled with low pressure back in charge. With high pressure to the west and northwest and low pressure to our east, that’s a cold and rather ugly set up for May with cold winds, frequent, blustery showers and late frosts when skies clear and winds drop by night.

I am by no means writing off May completely as I think there’s room for rebuilding of heights during the 2nd half of the month but I suspect we’ve lost the persistent, ‘weeks long’ high pressure pattern.

Lower heights and colder air aloft combined with warm surrounding water typically leads to a wetter pattern and once those soils turn wet in an El Nino summer, it’s often hard to break the cycle.

The CFSv2 shows the trough dominating the first half of May but hints at something more settled towards week 4 or the 12-18th.

wk1_wk2_20150420_z500

wk3_wk4_20150420_z500

GFS ensemble shows similar in it’s 0-16 day.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

For more information, be sure to check out the rest of the website for daily write-ups and videos. There’s even discussion now about next winter!

Thanks for reading.

 

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