PATTERN SHIFT: High Pressure Bursts Late This Week And Gives Way To Low Pressure Dominance Next Week

It’s the start of a new work week and for most, the schools are back. This week starts as last week ended with high pressure continuing to dominate. Chilly starts with rural frosts gives way to a pleasantly comfortable bright or sunny afternoon. As the high sits almost directly overhead, so winds will be lighter than through the weekend and so temps will be a touch warmer. Sheltered parts of the west could creep into the low 20s early and mid week, especially over the Midlands and interior Southwest of England.

TOP IMAGE CREDIT: Bear Scotland

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There’s little change Monday through Wednesday but come Thursday we begin to see our protective bubble starts to weaken like air being released from a tire slowly and particularly into Friday we see the results of that as heights lower enough to allow a system to the north and southwest push cloud and showers in.

Firstly I want to show you the difference between the upcoming 5 days vs the following 5 days. Almost opposite.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The question is, is this a blip or is it a more pronounced or permanent pattern shift. Certainly the models suggest a very different weather map for next week on into early May. Looks like gardeners will be able to put their hoses and watering cans away for a bit. But does this shift last? After all, we’ve on the whole been dominated by high pressure for much of the last 60 days.

Here’s how the GFS depicts this week with the break down towards the weekend.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Both GFS and ECMWF holds the wet weather out till Friday.

Through the weekend, the GFS pushes a rain bearing front across the UK and behind it, a feed of much colder air.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

As the high rebuilds up over Greenland, it looks like we’re in for ocean modified as well as ‘seasonal modified’ ARCTIC brand air. Snow for the hills but just a chilly rain to lower levels, it’s too late in the year for anything wintry. We’re back to dealing with low pressure next week with wind and rain!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

It also turns much more unsettled over the western flank of the continent too where like here, it’s been dry and warmer than normal.

CFSv2, EPS control and GFS ensembles ALL show this pattern holding into May but check out the warming of waters between April 2-16th surrounding the UK as well as down to our southwest extending all the way into the west tropical Atlantic.

anomnight_4_2_2015

anomnight_4_16_2015

This could trigger the much anticipated ‘wetter summer’ in the not so distant future.

Be sure to check out this morning’s video for more.

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