A stormy Saturday is upon us as a rapidly deepening low crosses the UK. Fuelled by a sharpening temperature gradient over eastern North America, the trans-Atlantic jet stream is forecast to accelerate beyond 200 knots, rare for this late in the season. The jet usually begins to weaken s we head towards April with the northward migration of sub-tropical air but unusual, mid-winter intensity cold colliding with this increasingly summerlike air means an unusually powerful jet at 40,000ft.
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A jet this strong pointing directly at the UK only means one thing. Stormy conditions and the first hit in a series comes Saturday. Low pressure now dropping into the 990s (mb) is expected to cross during tomorrow, crashing through the 980s, possibly 970s. This pressure drop forces the system to pull in air rapidly, tightening the gradient of the field and therefore stronger winds are the result.
Check out the projected jet stream intensity through this weekend into next week. Lows will strike fast and furious within this highly unstable, fast moving pattern.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
That jet forces enhanced cyclogenesis and between Sat-Mon, 3 lows cross the UK, the first being the strongest.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
As well as gale or severe gale-force winds across a large swathe of Scotland, northern Northern Ireland and the north of England, a spell of heavy rain will also accompany making for very tricky travel. Expect disruption of travel, especially on ferries and bridges. Gusts widely 45-70 mph, locally 80-90 on the coast and over high ground.
Into next week and while still very windy, heights begin building west out over the Atlantic west of Ireland and so we’ll start pulling in colder, polar-maritime air. This will increase the snow threat and that will drop as colder and colder air gets into UK airspace, especially Tue-Wed.
ECMWF drops a fair amount of snow over Highland Scotland in the next 5-7 days.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
This is a wet pattern for the western flank of the UK, Scandinavia and near continent exposed to the strong westerly.
The current ECMWF 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies show this building of heights west of Ireland in the 0-5 and 5-10 day that sends colder air masses into the UK and particularly Europe itself.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
That’s looking like a rather cold pattern setting up. Will have more on Easter weekend in tomorrow’s post. I touch of this in this morning’s video.
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