No question, it’s been mild to warm on the East Coast with snow cover shrinking rapid. However, the cold pattern is coming back and here’s why.
When you’ve got a strong phase 7 MJO, and the AO/NAO are heading into negative territory with abnormal warm water up the West Coast, you just know where the heights are soon to rebuild!
Credit: NY Metro Weather
CFSv2 upper anomalies show the flip week 2. Notice for the first time, the Alaska and Scandinavian positive hooks up with another core over Greenland.
TOP IMAGE CREDIT: Associated Press/WeatherBug
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]
A major strat warming episode predicted by the GFS could signify yet another shot of extreme cold into the East before we finally get out of this.
Be sure to check out today’s Europe post on a potentially stronger El Nino this summer into the fall. Strength of El Nino’s can have very different effects on the US summer and winter seasons. Weak episodes, like last summer often lead to cooler summer’s but stronger El Nino’s such as the 1997-1998 episode can lead to warmer summers and winters.
My first ever visit to the US (Houston, TX) was in July 1998 and it was during one of the worst Southern Plains and national heat waves on record. I was amazed at all the cracks in the ground and how wide they were due to the extreme drought and heat.
There was arguably, ‘some’ influence from weak nino conditions last summer but it’s likely that the warm water in the NE Pacific helped lead to the continued positive over AK and Yukon while a trough lingered over the Lower 48.
CFSv2 has the wetter first half to summer but it dries out Jul/Aug over the Southern Plains and South leading to potential drought and heat.
Here are the CFSv2 temps
I think the East Coast will be warmer and more humid this summer as waters are warm up against the coast. This will lead to more humid air masses and more humidity holds heat more than dry air masses.
See video for more! Hope you like the new video presentation! I say I’m back tomorrow but forgot I’m taking the day off 🙂 Next update will be Sunday!
[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]
Recent Comments