US: Mirror Of Ocean, Atmosphere & Land Anomalies Is Remarkable… Winter Ain’t Done Despite Spring Tease!

What a difference 10 days makes in March with higher sun angle and increase in solar energy reaching the surface. Even on frigid days that may be well well below freezing, melting still occurs.

March opened brutal with over 63% of the Lower 48 snow covered with all but Florida with at least some snow.

nsm_depth_2015030105_National

Today it’s down to 19% and down from 53% just 5 days ago.

nsm_depth_2015030505_National

nsm_depth_2015031005_National

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Sure the current warmth and rain we’re seeing now run up the East Coast can’t be denied but thinking that winter’s over I’m afraid can be because when you’ve got this ocean verses land anomaly (below), you know that the positive heights are only just going to go right back over where those waters are warm. The current Alaska trough/Lower 48 ridge is temporary and feedback is soon to re respond to the atmosphere above.

The ‘mirror’ of ocean, atmosphere and land anomalies are just amazing and why the below GFS ensemble for the upcoming 16 day period makes perfect sense.

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500mb geopotential height anomaly

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Surface skin temp (c)

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GFS ensemble.

gefs-hgt--namericawide-168-C-500hgtanom_7d_white

gefs-hgt--namericawide-336-C-500hgtanom_7d_white

gefs-hgt--namericawide-384-C-500hgtanom_7d_white

2m temp anomalies (these are the 7 day mean remember!)

gefs-tmp--namericawide-168-C-2mtempanom_7d_white

gefs-tmp--namericawide-336-C-2mtempanom_7d_white

gefs-tmp--namericawide-384-C-2mtempanom_7d_white

See video for today’s video. Will have more on what I’m thinking for spring and summer tomorrow and in the coming days!

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