Howling SW Wind Drives Flooding Rain Into West Scotland, Pushes Temp To 17.5C In Northern Ireland

Written by Mark Vogan on March 7, 2015 in Rest of Europe, Spring 2015, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

There’s a lot of moisture piling into the western side of Scotland today into tomorrow thanks to a near stalled front that’s being pushed back by a powerful ridge SE of the UK. The persistent and strong SSW flow is driving sub-tropical moisture into western upslopes and therefore enhancing the rainfall as well as driving the warmest air of the year in also.

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If your on the northeast coast today, you may be saying, what rain? The hills act as a pitchers mit. The A85 near Crainlarich is closed due to flooding while football in Inverness is postponed due to a waterlogged pitch while it may be sunny and warm on the eastern or leeside of the mountains.

Here’s the surface may through the next 24 hours.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Up to 8 inches of rain is possible over favoured upslope areas near Fort William.

Credit: BBC

It’s windy for pretty much all today.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Gusting over 100 mph across the ridges to the east of Fort William. 30-50 mph widely.

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According to the BBC, Murlough, Co Down has reached 17.5C this afternoon which makes it the UK’s warm spot of 2015 so far!!

Eventually the front clears SE opening the door to a colder, drier air flow out of the WNW tomorrow.

A brief ridge settles in during Sunday allowing for a frosty start to Monday, however more trouble looms out to our west and this next low may pack quite the punch.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

ECMWF projected wind gusts at 72 hrs.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Notice how it’s a fairly small feature but it’s a pretty deep little low with a tight wind field. Winds with this thing could blow gale or even severe gale-force across Scotland Mon night into Tue.

There’s a fair amount of rain expected through the next 6 days with focus on NW Scotland.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

This 16 day 500mb height anomaly profile and CFSv2 upper height anomalies for March and April have a similar look to spring 2009 and 2010 which had a cooler, wetter summer the further north and west you went over the UK. There was spells of warm and dry in the Southeast into the near continent.