Since it’s March and the sun is climbing higher in the sky, there’s a battle setting up between pattern and seasonal shift.
This is the 2nd winter is a row where there’s been a remarkably strong feedback relationship between ocean SST’s and the atmosphere. Ridging has been relentless right where the warm anomaly has been greatest and this feedback has grown more and more pronounced and extreme as the winter season progressed hence the warmest winter in parts of the West vs one of the coldest in the East.
The fight is beginning as the sun rises higher in the sky and therefore increasing amounts of energy reaching earth’s surface. Mexico is beginning to heat up and so but with a huge expanse of snow cover and cold air around, any warmth trying to push east comes up the northward migration begins but this natural northward progression will come up against enormous resistance.
As of March 1, an incredible 63% of the United States was snow covered.
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For a 2nd year in a row and perhaps even more pronounced, warm SST anomalies are driving this wild Eastern US winter end game. Right where the global anomalies are strongest, so the extremes of warm and cold (globally) reside.
Recall the extremity of last March? Don’t think this year will be in the same league but I suspect a colder regime continues. Sure modelling tries to build heights further east as the negative returns to Alaska and eventually extends down the West Coast but low level cold air hanging over the vast snow cover is likely to cool as any warmth pushes east.
Any warmth which does push into the snow fields of the east is likely to be short lived.
As shown in today’s video, note the 500mb height anomalies vs the 2m temp anomalies. Despite positive heights, there remains below normal temps.
GFS ensemble.
CFSv2 still has a cold March.
More tomorrow…
Be sure to watch today’s video for the discussion.
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