Hitting the Road…. Brief Thoughts On Valentine’s Weekend, Next Week!

I’m hitting the road very soon so this is just a quick write-up unfortunately. There’s a full discussion on today’s video.

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VALENTINE’s WEEKEND

Looking blustery with showers across England and Wales Saturday. More settled the further north you go.

ECMWF surface for 14th

ecmwfued---europe-84-A-mslpthkpcp_white

GFS surface

gfs---europe-84-A-mslpthkpcp_white

In short, we’ve got a battle setting up between Atlantic low pressure and the European ridge. In recent days I had the ridge all but bursting and the Atlantic opening up. Especially given the extremity of the cold that’s developing over eastern North America which leads to a strengthening of the trans Atlantic jet and wave train.

Latest ridge appear to show the ridge holding firm and retrograding west from mainland Europe towards an Azores position. This strong Azores high will redirect low pressure further north and ultimately away from the UK with just small-scale glancing blows. This can change of course but IF this setup holds true, then February is looking very dry indeed.

Be sure to see the video for discussion and a look at the charts.

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