UK Ends The Week & Cold Spell With Bitter East Wind (For Southeast), Focus Of Cold Shifts Into Continent Next Week!

Written by Mark Vogan on February 4, 2015 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2014/15 with 0 Comments

It’s looking like a cold spring is ahead for all of Western and indeed much of Europe with the exceptions of Iberia.

temp2_glob_MAM2015_1jan2015

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The Jamstec looks correct based on the central Pacific El Nino, strong east QBO and cold water surrounding the UK with a rather negative or cold AMO signal. Be sure to watch the video for more on my early spring and summer ideas.

As for the here and now

The Atlantic high continues to build into the NORTHERN UK as we approach the end of the work week. This in turn, as stated last weekend increases the cold easterly air flow across the South. Showers of both rain and snow will be sporadic. Some will get a covering, some won’t but what is more definite is the chill brought by that strong east wind blowing straight from the Baltic Sea and Germany.

Check out the 850mb temperature profile at 48 hrs. Note the warmer Atlantic air returning to Scotland and colder/continental air sliding across Southern England on the southern flank of the high.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Surface

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The 10m wind gusts will be gale-force along the East Anglian, Kent coast with significant wind chill!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Wind chills turn colder Thursday and even colder still by Friday!

Credit: Met Office

ECMWF ‘sees’ the snow brought in by the easterly flow. The stronger the wind, the colder the wind because the air is transported quicker from cold continent to SE England, spending less time over the relative warm North Sea!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Strongest east winds and coldest wind chills will be Friday but by Saturday, Sunday those winds shift south into France as the high builds further. Look like we’ll pick up a less cold, NW flow into early next week which will bring milder, clouder days to the North, drier, brighter weather across England and Wales. Where clear by night, expect a frost but mild, sunshine by day.

While the UK pulls out of this latest cold spell, the worst of winter is set to hit much of Europe with biting arctic winds and heavy snowfall. We head into a more tranquil regime. Check out the surface and 850mb charts for Europe early next week. High pressure centred just off Ireland and low pressure over NW Russia means a direct discharge of bitter air from the arctic all the way into the Med where snow is possible.