WESTERN EUROPE: Two Systems To Contend With This Week, 2nd Could Bring Damaging Wind!

In today’s write-up I want to focus more on the upcoming week and the two spells of wet and windy weather. Be sure to check out the video for more on the longer term cold potential.

Some would say it’s a rather boring week of typical British weather with mild, wet and windy and I guess it is. The +NAO is keeping our weather fluid with nothing to slow or redirect the westerly jet stream.

CFSv2 week 1-2 500mb anomalies can’t be disputed with strong +NAO, lowest heights further north.

wk1_wk2_20150102_z500

The charts have two main storm systems which will affect us now through next weekend, the first (Wed) looks to bring a spell of heavy rain and gales but the 2nd system come late Friday into Saturday may bring downright stormy conditions. Each system will push a cold front through and so expect mild ahead of it and cold behind it. Nothing new there…

System one (Wednesday)

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

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System two (Friday-Saturday)

This one looks to be somewhat of a beast as pressures dip towards 940mb north of Lewis and west of Shetland during Saturday.

Even before central pressure bottoms out, you’ve got a gradient of 968 vs 1024mb which means WIDESPREAD gales but as the system deepens further, to 940mb, 10 metre gusts on the southern flank of the system crank to 90 knots north of Scotland which may impact Orkney and particularly Shetland during Saturday.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Check out the projected wind gusts at 10mb.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

65 knots in 74 mph, 70 knots is 80 mph and 80 knots is 92 mph and 90 knots is 103 mph. The model shows widespread gusts to 50 knots, that’s 57 mph north of Birmingham.

Here’s Saturday with a deeper centre.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

A cold NW flow follows in it’s wake with high snow.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

850s in the -5 to -10 range cover Ireland and the UK, so snow levels may get pretty low.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Rain is also likely to be an issue with localised flooding. Then the colder air comes in behind with snow levels lowering to high road routes in the north once again.

Moist WSW flows always show up the west/east UK rain shadow nicely. In the next 7 days, while western upslopes could collect up to 4 inches of rain, parts of the east may barely pick up anything. Southwest Norway could see 7 inches while a little further south into low lying Denmark and there’s only a half inch as they are protected by the UK!

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

As shown in this morning’s video, the CFSv2 is now showing the northern/Greenland blocking with trough focusing over Ireland, UK and near continent in week 3-4.

wk3_wk4_20150102_z500

See video.

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